French Open 2021: Women's Third Round Analysis
A couple of analyses covering Aryna Sabalenka's loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Victoria Azarenka's killer form against Madison Keys.
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Another ‘On The Line’ article so early in the week?!
Don’t slap yourself1, you’re not dreaming!
Since the French Open is a bit of a big deal in the tennis world, I’ve decided that it’s only fitting to double my output.
Last time, we discussed some of the men’s first round matches, including Thiem’s loss, changes to Federer’s game and Medvedev’s maiden French Open victory (check out the article here if you like).
This time, we’re discussing a couple of entertaining women’s third round matches:
Aryna Sabalenka’s Grand Slams woes continue in her loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Victoria Azarenka’s ominous form in her victory over Madison Keys.
Let’s dive in!
French Open Round of 32: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova defeats Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-0
Aryna Sabalenka’s third round loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova means another early exit at the Grand Slams for Aryna Sabalenka.
Though Sabalenka is ranked #4 in the world and has the second most wins this year, at the Slams, she remains far from the top of the game.
She has made 14 Grand Slam main draw appearances and has won only 16 matches. In nine of her 14 Slam losses, she has lost to a lower ranked player and only once has she been able to upset a higher ranked player.
What is the big-hitting Belarusian doing differently from her usual game? Can we chalk her loss down to the pressure to perform on the big stage?
No Plan B on second serve
When things are going swimmingly for Sabalenka, she is un-freakin’-stoppable.
Sabalenka and Pavlyuchenkova played earlier this year at the Madrid Masters. Pavlyuchenkova played a decent match but Sabalenka was on a roll that day (that tournament, even), mercilessly allowing Pavlyuchenkova only fives games.
The most impressive aspect of her game?
She won 73.7% of her second serve points - that’s 14 of 19 points. Discount a couple of double faults and Sabalenka won 14 of the 17 second serves that landed in the court… That’s a lot, by the way.
Time and time again, Sabalenka finished the point with her groundstrokes, hitting a clean winner or forcing an error nine times on her second serve after Pavlyuchenkova made the return. Her second serve + backhand combination was particularly devastating.
Conversely, Pavlyuchenkova was only able to hit a clean winner or force an error twice off of a Sabalenka second serve.
Fast forward to Paris and Sabalenka clearly had the same intentions on her second serve, unafraid to take the ball on with her backhand.
Where Pavlyuchenkova could barely win a point in Madrid, she was obliterating the Sabalenka second serve in Paris - Sabalenka was only able to win 33.3% of her second serve points (10 of 30 points). Pavlyuchenkova had adjusted her strategy, going for outright winners and pressurising the serve, increasing the risk of her return but giving Sabalenka zero attack power on the following shot.
This was the pattern of play on many of Sabalenka’s second serve points but not once did she change her service position, instead clutching at straws for a bigger second serve. This led to her double faulting eight times, four of which came in the deciding set.
The strength of Pavlyuchenkova’s second serve returns may have been out of her control but her serving position could have been altered, at least to give the Russian a smaller target to aim into.
Tenacious in victory. Stubborn in defeat.
Feeling the pressure on return
Sabalenka’s backhand works wonders on her service game but it is even more important in her return games. Her ability to take the backhand return on aggressively with control can often leave her opponents feeling claustrophobic.
Against Pavlyuchenkova, there were moments of brilliance on the backhand return but she failed to utilise this key shot in the most important moments. She actually made more returns and only lost 5% more points on return in Paris than in Madrid, testament to the fact she found some rhythm, but she blinked when it mattered most.
Surely, pressure has got to be a factor on these returns? Sabalenka was making these sorts of plays in her sleep in previous tournaments - suddenly, the backhand return deserts her completely.
More required at the Grand Slams
The two factors that are affecting Sabalenka most at the Grand Slams?
(Probably) pressure.
No Plan B.
If Sabalenka is going to do well at the Slams, she will have to improve her abilities in both of these departments.
Sure, she could get away with having one plan if she can execute to her top level for seven matches - she’s done this over a shorter length of time at other tournaments after all!
In Paris, however, the conditions slowed the ball down and her opponent came in with a more aggressive mindset on return but Sabalenka belligerently tried to play the same game she’d been playing from the start. She had chances to get back into the match repeating the same plan but something played a part in her missing on the big points.
Who am I to say for certain it was pressure? At the same time, what else could explain 17 unforced errors in the third set alone?
Sabalenka is a fantastic player and she could potentially win any match she plays. It’s not often she goes off the rails the way she did in the third set, having only been bagelled six times on the main tour2.
I think the fact that it’s uncharacteristic for her to capitulate in the way she did only serves to back up my point, however. When things are going wrong for Sabalenka at the Slams, she needs alternative strategy and/or a better way of handling the pressure.
French Open Round of 32: Victoria Azarenka defeats Madison Keys 6-2 6-2
It’s been a while but Victoria Azarenka is looking good on clay.
2013 was arguably the last incarnation of Clay-zarenka, making her only appearance in the semis of the French Open and reaching the final of the Italian Open that year.
After winning four matches at the French Open since then, Azarenka is taking the tournament by storm. She beat former French Open champ, Svetlana Kuznetsova, in the first round and followed that up with a strong win over the Danish phenom, Clara Tauson.
She’s now recorded an emphatic win over fellow former French Open semifinalist, Madison Keys.
Not convinced you should be paying attention to Vika this fortnight?
That return game
It took a couple of games for her to rev the return up, but, against Keys, Azarenka was pretty much faultless on this shot.
There’s a good reason Azarenka has won more second serve return points than anyone else this year3 and is the only player to have won over 50% of their return points.
Azarenka takes the return on early. Like, break of dawn early.
In her post-match interview, Azarenka acknowledged Keys firepower.
“When she has time, she’s probably one of the best strikers on tour.”
What Azarenka said showed in Keys winning more points hat went over nine shots. As Keys got more settled into a rally, she was able to dictate the outcome of the point.
Azarenka did an amazing job of keeping these kind of points to a minimum, attacking every one of Keys’s serves where the opportunity presented itself.
Azarenka would end the match winning 53.6% of her return points played.
No side for Keys to exploit
A smaller point but look at the perfect symmetry of Azarenka’s groundstrokes.
Neither of Azarenka’s wings were worse than the other, making it very difficult for Keys to choose a target against the Belarusian.
Victoria Darkhorse-arenka?
Okay, fine, that one definitely doesn’t work.
Azarenka is in no mood to mess about this year at Roland Garros. Her deadly returns and her solid baselining will make her a threat to just about anybody, with her clay level close to its peak.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is coincidentally Azarenka’s next opponent. Where Sabalenka faltered on return, expect Azarenka to excel. If she can get through Pavlyuchenkova, as the second-highest seed left in her half of the draw, who knows how far she could go?
Everyone is surely hoping for the battle of the mums in the quarterfinal versus Serena Williams - if she continues to play at this level, Azarenka is probably the favourite.
Fingers crossed for a deep run, Vika!
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3rd least per match in the top 10, equivalent to being bagelled one in every 39 matches. Here’s the rest of the top 10 just for fun!
Barty: 1 in 38 matches.
Osaka: 1 in 24 matches.
Halep: 1 in 20 matches.
Kenin: 1 in 22 matches.
Svitolina: 1 in 22 matches.
Andreescu: 1 in 45 matches.
Williams: 1 in 119 matches.
Swiatek: 1 in 15 matches.
Pliskova: 1 in 34 matches.
She’s won more second serve return points by some margin as well, winning 69.1%. Simona Halep was second at 60.5%… Mental stat!