French Open 2021: Men's First Round Analysis
Some brief analyses including Dominic Thiem's continued dip in form, some of the changes in Roger Federer's game and Daniil Medvedev's maiden French Open win.
Bonjour tout le monde!
Though it has only been eight months since we witnessed the King and (newly anointed) Queen of clay demolish their respective opponents, here we are at the French Open once more to potentially do it all over again.
Indeed, Rafael Nadal and Iga Swiatek remain the heavy favourites to defend their titles and each will take some stopping.
There are several other storylines bubbling under the surface, however, intriguingly keeping this year's Roland Garros from sticking to the script.
I've briefly analysed a few of the men's first round matches that haven't gone completely as expected:
Dominic Thiem's loss from two sets up to Pablo Andujar.
Changes to Roger Federer's game against Denis Istomin.
Daniil Medvedev's maiden French Open win against Alexander Bublik.
Profitez de l’article (okay, no more French from here on in, I promise)!
French Open Round of 128: Pablo Andujar defeats Dominic Thiem 4-6 5-7 6-3 6-4 6-4
In perhaps the most shocking result of the French Open so far, Dominic Thiem crashed out to Spanish veteran, Pablo Andujar, despite winning the first two sets.
This is the shitty icing on one shitty cake of a season for Thiem.
This now marks his worst start to a season ever1 and it’s Thiem’s only loss in the first round of the French Open.
What’s happened to the Prince of Clay?
As recently as the tail end of last of month, Thiem cited mental health issues as a large part of the problem.
“After [winning the US Open] I was in a state of euphoria… But during the preparation for this season I fell into a hole… I spent 15 years chasing the big goal without looking to the left or the right… You have to do something for your head, for your brain. There was only tennis.”
Sure enough, Thiem’s focus seemed to dwindle during his loss to Andujar.
Nothing consistently worked for him throughout the match, particularly the following two factors.
Thiem’s second serve
Potentially the worst facet of his game in this match, Thiem’s second serve looked vulnerable, even in the first two sets.
He would end the match winning 34.5% of his second serve points, his worst second serve win percentage in any of his 36 French Open matches.
What did this look like in terms of the match?
Thiem double faulted seven times, his joint-most double faults in any French Open match. Four of these occurred in the last two sets as Thiem became more and more agitated by his serve.
Andujar killed his second serve returns as Thiem’s confidence waned.
Thiem missed more and more first serves as the pressure mounted on him to avoid a second serve2.
Poor from the backhand corner
Ever need an indicator of Thiem’s confidence level? Watch how well he performs when he is pinned into the backhand corner.
Ordinarily, Thiem would blast his way out of this pattern of play with an inside-out forehand.
If he opts not to run around the forehand, a better indicator of his confidence is his one-handed backhand down the line.
In the first two sets, these two shots were few and far between but they showed up when they were required.
In the final three sets, these two shots pretty much disappeared. Thiem’s backup plan of slicing against Andujar wasn’t having any impact and he failed to find his usual explosiveness from the backhand corner, especially as the wind picked up in the final set.
Thiem’s forehand went wayward as the match wore on. After hitting a winner or forcing an error with his forehand 21 times in the first two sets, he was only able to do the same thing 10 times in the last three sets. His slice backhand came out to compensate for his inconsistency and eventually, when the topspin backhand did make a reappearance in the final set, it too went completely wayward.
Thiem looking lost on court
Along with a return position that changed from Nadal’s to Murray’s to everything in between, these factors left Thiem looking lost on court last Sunday.
Yes, Pablo Andujar is a solid player that was able to beat Federer in Geneva last month but Dominic Thiem is normally an unshakable force in Paris that would previously have risen to the challenge.
This week, he was completely drained of confidence.
Dominic Thiem and, his coach, Nicolas Massu have been a wonderful partnership but, having picked up his first Slam last year, Thiem has entered a new phase in his career, one that Massu may not be able to relate too.
Here’s some food for thought… Li Na as Thiem’s coach?
Li Na won her first Slam, the 2011 French Open, at 29 years old - Thiem won the 2020 US Open at 27.
Li Na also struggled to find her form after winning her maiden Slam, winning 7 of her next 16 matches.
Li Na overcame this slump to win her final Slam, the 2014 Australian Open, at 32 years old.
If Thiem is considering changes to his coaching Thiem, maybe he should consider reaching out to Li Na!
If not, let’s keep our fingers crossed Thiem and Massu can find a way to rekindle title competing form …
Head up Dominic!
French Open Round of 128: Roger Federer defeats Denis Istomin 6-2 6-4 6-3
“I’m just realistic that I know I will not win the French and whoever thought I would or could win it is wrong.”
Roger Federer started his French Open campaign by tempering expectations. I don’t think I’ve ever heard Federer set his own bar so low.
After his destruction of Denis Istomin, however, perhaps Federer’s been a little sneaky coming into his 19th French Open. With the pressure well and truly off, the 39-year old showed he could play some of the freest tennis of his career.
Different serve, same results
Federer has changed his service motion in 20213.
Federer showed he could use his new serve to sublime effective against Istomin, his serve flowing freer than Tsitsipas’s golden locks.
Federer lost only 13 points on serve, averaging one point lost per service game, and faced zero break points throughout the entirety of the match.
Though his first serve was 6mph slower on average than Istomin’s, the placement of the serve was impeccable. This resulted in Federer winning 63% of his service points in 0-4 shots - Istomin only managed to win 40% of his service points this rally length.
Drop it like its hot
Codger Federer, the father of two sets of twins and playing his 23rd year on tour, doesn’t have time for extended baseline rallies or comebacks on return from 40-0 down.
No, the modern version of Clay-derer ends the point as soon as he can, for better or worse. Most notably, and supremely effectively in his match against Istomin, Federer has been using the drop shot to cut points short.
Federer used a drop shot 17 times against Istomin and won a whopping 14 of these points. Though there aren’t many drop shot statistics on record, I’ve put a few other French Open match stats in the footnotes to give you a little context4.
The point is Federer drop shotted very frequently against the Uzbek, resulting in it featuring in over 10% of the total points played. It wasn’t exclusive to the backhand wing either, making it difficult for Istomin to read.
Decent but not dangerous
Federer looks to be in decent form.
He’s as wily as ever and serving strong, mixing things up sublimely with the aforementioned drop shots. The forehand, which he was desperate to use on return, looked effective and his net game was razor sharp.
In the end though, I’d have to agree with Federer - I don’t see him winning the title. Though his movement is still pretty good, he was struggling on some of the tougher defensive shots and he may not be given the opportunity to mix things up as easily against, say, Nadal as he did against the world #204.
Federer’s looseness could potentially see him through to the quarterfinals but I don’t see him getting any further… stranger things have happened though!
Either way, he’ll be looking to send a statement of intent for the upcoming weeks - if Roger Federer can play this well at the French Open, the sky’s the limit at Wimbledon…
French Open Round of 128: Daniil Medvedev defeats Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-3 7-5
Daniil Medvedev’s had a 0-4 record going into this year’s French Open and his luck didn’t look to be changing any time soon.
The world #2 had been drawn a pretty rough first round encounter with the world #37, Alexander Bublik.
Ever the realist, Medvedev was surprisingly full of optimism before his match.
“I have to say coming here was my first practice yesterday, I was playing amazing so far. I didn't feel that it was clay. I was playing like on hard courts, and hopefully, have some expectations… I really like the conditions here so far, and looking forward to making a great tournament, to be honest.”
This showed in his straight sets defeat of the Kazakh.
Medvedev plays a rhythmic game, ticking along nicely with huge first serves and breaking down his opponent’s service game with flat, deep groundstrokes.
Conversely, Bublik is a tricky player that tries to disrupt the rhythm of his opponent. Nothing Bublik was throwing at Medvedev was working, however.
Medvedev’s return of serve was neutralising Bublik’s own massive serve, particularly on the second serve, where Medvedev won a massive 68% of second serve return points. This prompted Bublik to go for bigger second serves, leading to eight double faults, and also influenced Bublik’s decision to change to the serve and volley tactic after the first set. He had more success with this but Medvedev gave Bublik a difficult look more often that not.
Drop shots were getting eaten alive by Medvedev, with Bublik winning only 20% of his drop shot attempts.
Bublik went all or nothing on his backhand at the end of the third set and was rewarded with a chance to serve out the set. Zero panic as Medvedev continued to play the same solid tennis he’d played throughout. Bublik felt the pressure and double faulted a couple of times to immediately hand back the break.
Though Medvedev essentially had to play several different Bublik’s in one match, his tennis remained steadfast in its consistency. He didn’t get down on himself once and he found effective depth over and over again with his groundstrokes and returns.
The sign of a job well done by Medvedev? His opponent just about overheated with unforced errors. Medvedev finished the match with one more winner than Bublik, yet Bublik hit 45 unforced errors to Medvedev’s 16, nearly three times the amount.
Is Medvedev a contender for the title this year?
Probably not.
Is he the favourite to win his quarter of the draw?
Nah, probably not.
Will we even see him in the quarterfinals?
Look, he’s playing the best he has on clay for a while so he could feasibly get there. A fourth round win over Cristian Garin would be a tall order, however.
Let’s end on a positive - well done on breaking your French Open duck Daniil!
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Thiem’s winning percentage in the period between the start of the year to the end of the French Open is his lowest in any year on the ATP Tour.
2014: 11-9, 55.0%
2015: 17-12, 58.6%
2016: 38-10, 79.2%
2017: 34-13, 72.3%
2018: 35-9, 79.5%
2019: 23-8, 74.2%
2020: 20-6, 76.9%
2021: 9-8, 52.9%
Thiem’s first serve percentages in each set:
Set 1: 65%
Set 2: 69%
Set 3: 61%
Set 4: 59%
Set 5: 58%
Thanks to Sportiii Analytics for the astute observations. Check out their slo-mo of Federer’s serve here.
Federer’s drop shot frequency against various opponents at different French Opens.
2011 v Djokovic = 12/309 = 3.9%
2011 v Nadal = 18/273 = 6.6%
2015 v Dzumhur = 7/161 = 4.3%
2015 v Monfils = 3/220 = 1.4%
2019 v Nadal = 13/181 = 7.2%
2021 v Istomin = 17/152 = 11.2%
Brilliant article! ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️