Stefanos Tsitsipas wins the Monte Carlo Masters: Tournament Analysis
Stefanos Tsitsipas defeats Andrey Rublev to win his first Masters title in Monte Carlo. I've analysed how the Greek steamrolled his way through the draw.
Third time lucky for Stefanos Tsitsipas.
After being defeated by Djokovic and Nadal in his first two Masters finals, last Sunday, Tsitsipas finally picked up his first Masters 1000 title at the Monte Carlo Masters.
Despite winning the ATP Finals in 2019, many were beginning to doubt Tsitsipas’s ability to perform on the biggest of stages. Along with the two Masters finals, he’d also lost three Grand Slam semifinals and five ATP 500 finals.
For Tsitsipas, a self-proclaimed social media addict, it must feel amazing to silence the haters.
Silenced in emphatic fashion, too. Tsitsipas didn’t drop a set the entire week and he dropped his serve on only three occasions.
How did the young Greek change his fortunes at the highest level? What did Tsitsipas do to steamroll his way to his first Masters 1000 title?
I’ve analysed Stefanos’s final three matches1 to determine how he joined his mum on the elite list of winners at the Monte Carlo Country Club.
Monte Carlo Masters Round of 16: Stefanos Tsitsipas defeats Cristian Garin 6-3 6-4
After defeating Aslan Karatsev, Tsitsipas’s fans may have been expecting a reprieve.
Unfortunately, Tsitsipas would have to do things the hard way. A round of 16 with accomplished clay-courter, Cristian Garin, was his prize.
Though Garin is ranked #22 in the world, he has earned himself a 73% match-winning percentage and five titles on clay since the beginning of 2019.
Only five other men have performed better on the surface in that time.
Fortunately, Tsitsipas is one of them.
The last time these two met in Hamburg, Tsitsipas squeaked through in three very tight sets. This was largely due to Garin’s ability to conduct proceedings from the baseline, narrowly outhitting Tsitsipas’s forehand with his own odd-for-clay, but effective, flat forehand down the line. Tsitsipas was able to keep his head above water with some boisterous serving and some well-timed moves forward.
This time, Tsitsipas came through in straight sets by raising the level of his forehand.
In the first set, Tsitsipas hit only one less forehand unforced error than Garin, however, he hit a winner or forced an error using his forehand nine more times than the Chilean.
Though Garin gave his best effort to pin Tsitsipas into the backhand corner, the Greek gave nothing away on this wing (three backhand unforced errors), looking for the right ball to send down the line, often running around it to hit a stronger forehand. This would often expose Garin’s weak cross-court forehand, giving Tsitsipas an easy down the line shot.
Another key stat, and a common theme throughout the week, was Tsitsipas’s second serve success. He never gave Garin the chance to line up a return, winning 90% of his second serve points in the first set.
To mount the pressure in the second set, Tsitsipas refused to miss on Garin’s first service game. As a result, the Chilean gave away three of his six backhand unforced errors of the set in this single game to hand over the break rather meekly.
The players could hardly be separated for several games after that. Garin’s tenacity was eventually rewarded with his first break of serve, using a couple of monster forehands and a rogue net cord.
In Garin’s next service game, however, he lost three crucial points in a row.
The first was due to Garin trying to break the aforementioned pattern of play with a forehand up the line way too early.
The second was due to Garin pushing way too hard off of a short ball into the Tsitsipas forehand, missing by miles. He shouldn’t have missed it and was clearly feeling the pressure.
The third was due to a strong Tsitsipas forehand into Garin’s forehand, prompting an error when Garin tried to pull the ball cross-court.
Though Garin kept the match close by virtue of being a superb clay-court player2, he was forced to adjust his tactics and crumbled under the pressure.
Tsitsipas, on the other hand, trusted in his ability to implement his original strategy. He delivered solid first and second serves and waited for the most strategically favourable balls to detonate his forehand upon.
Monte Carlo Masters Semifinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas defeats Dan Evans 6-2 6-1
Tsitsipas’s return is considered by many to be his greatest weakness.
The commentator, Mark Petchey, stated during Tsitsipas’s semifinal against Dan Evans:
“He is not yet a great blocker of a return, Tsitsipas, which hurts him on a hard court against some of the better servers.”
Tsitsipas’s relative inability to block the serve effectively has been a catalyst behind his return game winning percentage of 18.6% on hard courts, less than 1 in 5 games.
On clay, Tsitsipas has more time to wind up his groundstrokes, negating the need to block back the return, and he is particularly comfortable hitting tricky high backhand returns. This has earned him a return game winning percentage of 27.2% on clay, just over 1 in 4 games.
In Monte Carlo this week, he knocked his return games winning percentage record out of the park, winning 37.5% of his return games, his highest winning percentage in any tournament he’s played to date.
Why is this relevant against Dan Evans?
Evans had relied heavily on coming forward to defeat his last four opponents, frequently using his serve as a means of dominating the point. He had won 80 of 121 trips to the net going into his first Masters semifinal. Against Tsitsipas, he won 4 of 11 net points.
Where serve and volleying on the biggest points had irked Novak Djokovic, Dan had no such luck against Tsitsipas. He won only 1 of the 5 attempts he made to serve and volley. This is partly due to Tsitsipas’s ability to deal with a high kicking serve to his backhand.
Tsitsipas was also able to temper the Evans slice backhand. This shot causes problems for many other players as it doesn’t bounce particularly high, preventing the ball from being attacked. Tsitsipas’s groundstrokes are the combined spinniest of the five players Evans played during Monte Carlo, allowing him to arc the ball into positions other players couldn’t.
The incompatibility of Evans’s game style to Tsitsipas’s resulted in Evans feeling pretty helpless on-court. Whilst Tsitsipas was able to win 73% of his service points, Evans was only able to win a woeful 40% of his own.
If that doesn’t convince you their games are incompatible, take a look at how their groundstrokes impacted proceedings.
The number of points that ended in a groundstroke unforced error:
Tsitsipas = 14
Evans = 13
The number of points that ended in a groundstroke winner or forced error from a groundstroke:
Tsitsipas = 32
Evans = 11
The stats are basically identical on the unforced error count but Tsitsipas finished the match with almost three times the amount of points won using his groundstrokes.
This is a difficult match-up in the best of circumstances for Evo, but, on clay, the usual complications are only exacerbated.
The match was only ever ending one way3.
Monte Carlo Masters Final: Stefanos Tsitsipas defeats Andrey Rublev 6-3 6-3
Though the King of Clay’s absence came as a surprise, perhaps it was appropriate that the Monte Carlo Masters final comprised of the two players with the most wins this year4.
There’s no doubt Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas were both in scintillating form but some may have argued it was the Russian that had the edge. Rublev won their most recent meeting in Rotterdam and, if that didn’t strike fear in Tsitsipas’s heart, he’d beaten Rafa on clay days earlier5.
They had, however, split their clay-court meetings one apiece. Rublev had narrowly taken the crown in Hamburg, whilst Tsitsipas had won their most important match at the French Open. He’d done it fairly comfortably as well.
This match was just as comfortable.
On this occasion, however, rather than using the conditions to exploit Rublev’s shaky transition game, the difference between the two players was more or less comprised of one shot.
The second serve.
1st serve points won:
Tsitsipas = 86%
Rublev = 80%
2nd serve points won:
Tsitsipas = 68%
Rublev = 33%
When Rublev missed his first serve, he served not to lose.
He was only able to muster up an average second serve speed of 85mph. This repeatedly allowed Tsitsipas to return using his forehand, diminishing the power of Rublev’s second serve completely.
When Tsitsipas missed his first serve, he served to win.
His average second serve speed of 104mph was not only over 20% faster than Rublev’s, but it also eclipsed his own average second serve speeds, too.
Tsitsipas average 2nd serve speed at the 2019 Monte Carlo Masters = 96mph.
Tsitsipas average 2nd serve speed going into the 2021 Monte Carlo Masters final = 98mph.
Tsitsipas average 2nd serve speed in the 2021 Monte Carlo Masters final = 104mph.
His second serve had been on fire all week so he doubled down on it in the final. He only hit one double fault during the match, his fourth of the week6.
Unable to dominate the rally on neither his own nor his opponent’s serve outside of his own first-serve points, Rublev’s backhand overheated. He would finish the match with 15 backhand unforced errors to Tsitsipas’s five. Seven of these unforced errors occurred during his own second serve points.
Just to further illustrate the chasm between the two second serves, take a look at the number of points finished in 1-4 shots on each player’s second serve.
Tsitsipas 2nd serve points finished in 1-4 shots:
Points won by Rublev = 2
Points won by Tsitsipas = 5
Rublev 2nd serve points finished in 1-4 shots:
Points won by Rublev = 3
Points won by Tsitsipas = 10
Tsitsipas used his second serve to prevent Rublev from beating him to a pulp with his forehand. Conversely, Tsitsipas’s forehand return off of Rublev’s second serve immediately put Rublev on the back foot.
Rublev didn’t have a plan B. He went down rather tamely, losing eight of the last ten points.
The championship point was a backhand unforced error following a Rublev second serve.
Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo: Tournament Analysis
There should be no doubt about it this week; Stefanos Tsitsipas deserved to lift the trophy more than anyone else.
Tsitsipas’s level of play stems from his outstanding serve.
His first serve was imperious and even when he missed this, a powerful second serve was lying in wait. He was able to add a few mph to the serve from his last appearance at Monte Carlo, whilst hitting the same number of double faults in more than twice the number of matches.
He’s made improvements in this area and it’s paid dividends. His second-best second serve winning percentage at any tournament came at the 2018 Monte Carlo Masters, where he won 59.1% - this week he won a stellar 65.4% of his second serve points, a vast improvement.
In the final, this was more evident than anywhere else, as he hit serves with the mentality of a champion, increasing his average second serve speed by 6mph.
With the serve taken care of, Stefanos was able to relax on his forehands on return and, with a spin rate rivalling Nadal’s, he dominated his opponent’s serves to win the highest percentage of return games he’s ever won in a single tournament.
Mark Petchey stated on Tsitsipas’s nerves after the first set against Rublev:
There’s just been a little bit of a thread, tiny thread in his career… it will be one thing Rublev will hang on to.
Tsitsipas put this thread to bed this week. He stuck to the same strategy and looked unbeatable at times, hardly blinking the entire week.
He may be one of the most varied players on the tour but Tsitsipas showed he is at his most dangerous when he’s keeping things simple.
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I would normally analyse the champion’s quarterfinal match but Tsitsipas’s opponent, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, retired due to injury after the first set. Shame - it was shaping up to be a good match!
Kudos to Garin for being Tsitsipas’s toughest opponent of the week.
Hats off to Dan Evans on overcoming a 10-match losing streak on clay to beat the reigning runner-up, Dusan Lajovic, the Miami Masters champion, Hubert Hurkacz, in-form and always dangerous David Goffin and the man that needs no introduction, Novak Djokovic. Outstanding!
Rublev and Tsitsipas had won 24 and 21 matches, respectively.
This was the first time since losing to Igor Andreev in 2005 that Nadal had lost his first meeting with an opponent on clay. He had been on a streak of 133 first meetings won. Mind-boggling numbers.
Earlier this year, Benoit Paire hit four double faults in a single game.
Great read.