Match Analysis: How Novak Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev at the Australian Open 2021
An analysis of Djokovic's emphatic victory over Medvedev, focusing on his astute tactics, his strong serving and his ever-excellent return of serve.
Novak Djokovic won his ninth Australian Open title this February, extending his record in semifinals and finals at his favourite major event to 18-0.
For those previously aware of Djokovic’s love affair with Rod Laver Arena, perhaps this wasn’t too surprising a win. What was surprising was just how easily he won against a potentially dangerous opponent in Daniil Medvedev. Since 2019, when Medvedev properly announced himself on the tour, the Russian had won three out of five of their meetings, including their last in a dominant display over Novak at the Nitto ATP Finals.
Djokovic seemed to have completely erased any memories of these struggles as he romped to a 7-5 6-2 6-2 victory, handing Medvedev his most comprehensive loss at a Grand Slam since the 2018 French Open.
How did Djokovic cause the game of the usually unflappable Medvedev to unravel in such an important match? This article looks to explore the reasons behind one of the Serb’s crowning achievements.
Bullying the Medvedev forehand
Djokovic went after the Medvedev forehand early on and it paid dividends.
Medvedev hit exactly the same amount of forehands in the first set as he did backhands as Djokovic frequently hit into the deuce court. Comparatively, in the first set of their ATP Finals showdown, Medvedev hit his backhand instead of his forehand 56% of the time on his way to a 6-3 set. It doesn’t sound like much of a difference but Djokovic’s tactical spanner in the works limits a crucial element of their rivalry - the cross-court backhand exchange.
Ordinarily, Djokovic would be happy to outlast his opponent in a cross-court backhand exchange. Medvedev is no ordinary player, however, and favours this pattern of play as much as Djokovic, remaining patient until the opportunity presents itself to redirect down the line.
In Australia, Djokovic rarely hit more than two backhands in a row to the ad court, refusing to exchange backhands with his opponent. Just as well as Medvedev’s backhand beat the Serb’s in all facets - one more error forced by the backhand, one less unforced error and three clean winners to Djokovic’s zero.
On the other hand1, Djokovic’s forehand was far more dependable than Medvedev’s and his attacking of this wing put it under the microscope. Medvedev’s forehand has a long wind-up which is prone to unravelling when rushed. Though he could handle the heat for a while, finding nine winners to Djokovic’s eight, the pressure took its toll as he hit 14 unforced errors to Djokovic’s three and could only extract six forced errors using his forehand to Djokovic’s 11.
Medvedev may have usurped the king of the two-handed backhand, but whilst he looked expectantly to his left for some stubborn resistance, Djokovic incessantly hit to Medvedev’s right, eventually breaking down the weaker wing.
Just enough on Novak’s serve
Djokovic’s serve, one of the game’s most underrated shots, kept things comfortable for him throughout the match.
Though the courts were quick, Djokovic wasn’t necessarily looking for outright aces, serving three throughout the match. He would have been aware of how good Medvedev’s return of serve is. Djokovic had been used to an unreturned first-serve rate of 45% throughout the tournament - against Medvedev, this dropped to 35%.
Djokovic was unphased, however. He was happy to mop-up on the following shot, winning a total of 32 points in the 0-4 shot range on serve. He went for just enough on serve, peppering the inside of the service lines to draw a short ball from Medvedev, allowing him to hit a clean winner on the following shot on 10 occasions. His accuracy also drew 13 forced return errors from Medvedev.
Furthermore, Djokovic handled his second serve well, winning 58% of second-serve points. He avoided serving out wide on the ad side, serving there on only one occasion, as this would open up the court for Medvedev’s deadly cross-court backhand return. On the deuce court, however, Djokovic was not serve wide as this went to Medvedev’s comparably weaker forehand return. He served to Medvedev’s forehand in the deuce court more than against any other opponent he’d faced in the tournament.
Djokovic didn’t press on his first-serve, assured of his ability in the ensuing rally, and he essentially used the second-serve as a rally ball to further degrade the Medvedev forehand. A clinical display from the world #1.
Capitalising on Daniil’s second serve
Djokovic is ubiquitously known for having one of the greatest returns of all time. His performance on return on Sunday showed how he earned this reputation.
Throughout the tournament, Medvedev had used his first-serve to sublime effect. He had won a whopping 81% of his first-serve points and just under half of his first-serves went unreturned at 49%. Against Djokovic, he could only win 69% of his first-serve points and only 37% of his first-serves went unreturned. For Djokovic to shave more than 10% from both of these metrics is incredibly impressive.
Where Medvedev was really taken apart when serving, however, was when he missed his first-serve. Djokovic won 19 of 28 points on Medvedev’s second-serve - even more impressive, Djokovic made the second-serve return on 20 occasions, meaning he lost only one second-serve return point when he returned the serve.
Medvedev did himself no favours in his relatively poor second-serve delivery. Despite being the joint tallest player Djokovic faced throughout the tournament at 6,6” in height, his average second-serve speed was the slowest of Djokovic’s opponents at 93mph. Medvedev also directed the second serve to the forehand on four out of 28 occasions - unpredictability should have been the game when he was on the way out, yet he timidly stuck to his original tactics.
Normally a master of strategic play, this suggests Medvedev was feeling helpless on second-serve. He did try a couple of massive second-serves but failed to execute. He had delivered huge second-serves in Cincinnati in 2019, winning his match there with an average second-serve speed of 106mph - it had earned him 11 of 26 second-serve points, which, though not much more impressive, is more impressive than his showing Down Under. After missing a few, he uncharacteristically lacked the conviction in this match to stick to his new strategy - Djokovic had left Medvedev floundering.
Overall, Djokovic tempered Medvedev’s strong first-serve and settled into a stifling rhythm on the Medvedev second-serve to break the Russian’s serve on seven occasions - Medvedev was also only able to hold serve seven times.
Novak Djokovic reigns supreme in Melbourne
Medvedev faced the second-toughest challenge2 in tennis and came up trumps.
Djokovic was ruthless in his barrage of the Medvedev forehand and it unravelled as the match progressed. He took care of his own serve methodically, using his second-serve to further press the Medvedev forehand. The most impressive aspect of Novak’s game, however, was likely his return of serve, absorbing Medvedev’s booming first-serve and dominating his second.
Medvedev could have altered a few components in his game but it was always going to be an uphill struggle. Djokovic’s win at the Australian Open extends his singles record at any tournament in Melbourne in the last three years to 29-0. On Sunday, he showed why betting against him in the Victorian state capital is pure folly.
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Pun intended.
Please refer to Rafa’s demolition of an in-form Novak last year in Paris to bear witness to the toughest challenge in tennis.