Miami Masters 2022: Appreciating Miomir Kecmanovic
Carlos Alcaraz may have defeated Miomir Kecmanovic but the Serb played his role in one of the matches of the season. We take a look at how he was able to keep it close against Carlitos.
In one of the matches of the season, Carlos Alcaraz defeated Miomir Kecmanovic by a whisker 6-7 (5) 6-3 7-6 (5).
We’ve been absorbing the hype around Alcaraz for a few months now and for good reason. The kid can’t be stopped, bulldozing, drop-shotting, lobbing and sprinting his way through anyone that stands in his path. His two losses this year?
Three sets against Rafael Nadal.
A fifth set tiebreak against Matteo Berrettini.
But what about the 22-year-old Serb that played the match of his life and lost down the other end of the court?
We’ve heard plenty about Carlos Alcaraz - let’s take a look at Miomir Kecmanovic.
A Little Love for Miomir Kecmanovic?
Having gone a combined 6-12 at Masters and Grand Slam level last year, Miomir was in a bit of a rut.
No matter - new year, new me said Miomir. He has immediately turned his fortunes around having compiled an 11-3 record at the same level in 2022.
Still, many feel as though he’s going under-appreciated this season.
It’s time to start paying Miomir the attention he deserves!
Here’s how Kecmanovic came tantalisingly close against Carlitos.
Serve-Percentage Improvements
Carlos Alcaraz has won a mind-blowing 42% of his return games on a hard-court this year putting him ahead of everyone else on tour.
Against Miomir Kecmanovic, he could only break serve twice.
Carlos’s 42% average crashed right down to 13% return games won against a 6’0” player that doesn’t consistently break 120mph with his serve.
It’s not a one-off.
Kecmanovic has been consistently posting better numbers on serve in 2022, upping his first-serve win-percentage by 5% and his second-serve win-percentage by 9% from last year.
What’s Changed?
Notice Kecmanovic’s ace-rate hasn’t increased i.e. he’s not spot-serving his opponents off the court with mind-boggling pace.
With the help of his coach David Nalbandian, Kecmanovic is keeping things simple - I believe one of the areas in which he’s channeling that simplicity is in his improvements to his serve + 1.
Watching Kecmanovic in the past, I always assumed his backhand was his strength. In his epic match against Mikhail Kukushkin in a Davis Cup tie at the end of last year, he ripped it down the line off incredibly low balls. A solid player for sure but he wasn’t consistently finding the extra zip required from his forehand to finish the point early and fell after failing to convert four match points.
Though it’s maybe a wee bit anecdotal, I am pretty assured watching Kecmanovic over the years that it’s not a stretch to say his forehand and backhand have looked similarly powerful, possessing an above average backhand and a below average forehand if you will.
This year, Kecmanovic has been mopping up with that forehand on serve, averaging 79mph on that wing against Alcaraz, faster than the Spaniard’s.
His serve + 1 mopping-up was made easier by delivering heavy serves out wide, especially in the ad-court. Though this was into Alcaraz’s more effective backhand return wing, there wasn’t much Alcaraz could do from this position, setting Kecmanovic up for a potent + 1 shot time and time again1.
It looks as though Nalbandian may have nudged Kecmanovic’s serving position slightly to the left in the ad-court to lean into this service delivery a bit more….
… but we won’t accept that as canon just yet.
Whatever the reason for the improvement (and if you know for sure, please comment!), Kecmanovic used this serve to great effect, intimidating the Spaniard into missed returns with his tidy serve + 1 game.
29/95 of Kecmanovic’s serve went unreturned, equivalent to 31%… but he hit just two aces.
Moral of the story? You don’t have to hit bombs to draw return errors from your opponent2.
It’s still not a jaw-dropping set of shots but it doesn’t need to be. Kecmanovic and David Nalbandian have struck an incredibly effective balance between aggression and consistency.
All it took was some insanely high-level tennis from Alcaraz to beat him.
The Future for Miomir
Where to next?
Maybe this success could translate to clay?
He’s not bullying his opponents with his serve but he has good variation and weight, enough to give him the forehand he’s looking for on the next shot, a forehand that’s wicked and loaded enough to trouble his opponents on the dirt.
Keep in mind his only title came on clay in Kitzbuhel two years ago…
Okay, he’s not shocking the world with his return game so might rely on a comfortable draw in some of the bigger events. In Madrid or Barcelona, he could definitely be an issue, those events a little less return-centric than the others.
Bottom line though: Miomir Kecmanovic is playing decent tennis = more love for Miomir Kecmanovic!
Alcaraz used the same kicker out wide to scramble Kecmanovic, frequently serving and volleying off the back of it.
The only other time Kecmanovic was broken was from 40-0 up after an odd serve + drop shot choice set the tone for an Alcaraz mini-comeback. One of his only lapses of the match.
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