Australian Open 2022: Men's Semifinal Analysis
Two scintillating men's semifinals took place this Friday at the Australian Open. Here's my analysis of both including Nadal defeating Berrettini and Medvedev defeating Tsitsipas.
What a pair of men’s semifinals at the Australian Open!
I’m here to analyse them both!
Nadal defeated Berrettini in four sets in the morning.
Medvedev defeated Tsitsipas in four sets at night.
Enjoy!
Rafael Nadal defeats Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3
Bad Match-Up
Assuming the insane difference in experience wasn’t a factor…
… some aspects of Matteo Berrettini’s third Grand Slam semifinal against Rafael Nadal didn’t look too bad.
They were playing indoors and, historically, Nadal is much worse indoors… I’ll let him explain (TLDR: Rafa’s topspin is less effective).
“I play normally better with warm conditions, the ball flying and creating more damage on the opponent’s with my topspin… in cold conditions the ball became a little bit bigger, a bit heavier, so I can’t go far back and hit long balls. So I need a better impact on the ball, more solid and I think I did it very well tonight.”
Berrettini had a better service-hold rate indoors last year, his bomb of a serve skipping through the court that bit quicker.
Nadal could have been knackered after his rough five-setter with Shapovalov, his lack of movement seeming to stop him from hitting his favourite inside-out forehand.
That was the good news for Berrettini.
Now for the bad news.
Nadal’s #1 tactic was clear: pin Berrettini into the backhand corner over and over again.
Ordinarily, Berrettini is more comfortable slicing the ball back into play, a shot he’s far more capable of pulling off. Unfortunately, Nadal is one of the, if not THEE, best in the business at dealing with the slice due to the lasso-like nature of his shots, able to get the ball up and down so easily from anywhere on the court.
At first glance, a couple of the points could have been relevant from above. But they weren’t because…
Nadal didn’t require the kick off lively courts that ordinarily gets from topspin in this match-up. The courts were quick enough that Berrettini couldn’t find his forehand from that corner so, with Berrettini’s topspin backhand still his weakest shot, he was in ad-court jail. He didn’t need to knock the stuffing out of the Italian - it was just a matter of trapping him.
People were raving about Nadal’s movement today but I don’t buy it. In their US Open match in 2019, Nadal hit his forehand 65.5% of the time - in this match, this number reduced to 55.5%. To my eyes, Nadal was much more trepidatious running around to his forehand…
… sure he hit some amazing inside-outters but compared to the US Open last year, he was subpar in this department.1 But again, no matter!
Couple this with the fact Rafa is hugely accomplished at making returns and this dynamic essentially makes this about as terrible a match-up for Berrettini as exists on tour.
What We’ve Learnt
The match revealed quite a lot about where both players currently stand.
Matteo Berrettini
Despite his flaws, Berrettini was still able to serve and forehand his way to a fourth set. These assets have brought him to a new career-high of #7 in the world and he still tons of room for improvement on his baseline game. The proof is in his tournament so far - Rafa wasn’t the only man to exploit Berrettini’s greatest weakness…
In a rally situation (points past the serve and return), Berrettini won more points than one of his opponents this week.
One.
Yet he managed to become the first Italian to reach the semifinals of the Australian Open on the back of a lethal serve and forehand combo.
Only positives to take from that - tons of room for improvement for an already excellent player.
Rafael Nadal
I’m sorry Rafans but here’s my pessimistic two cents.
Gone are the days where Nadal has the energy to fight for every point like it’s his last this deep in the Slams.
There was a period of the match where Berrettini won 22 straight service points.
Against Shapo, Nadal said he was “waiting for a miracle” in the fifth set. For the first two sets, 13% of the points went nine shots or more - in the fifth set, this number dropped to 7%.
I might be clutching at stats to push my point but to me, just watching the matches, Rafa seemed to be managing his energy. Shapo gifted Nadal four unforced errors in one service game, the miracle coming to fruition, and Nadal sauntered to the finishing line…
Sure, he was affected by a stomach bug in the Shapo match so I could be wrong but it’s something to keep in mind going into a gruelling match with Daniil!
Speaking of…
Daniil Medvedev defeats Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6 (5) 6-4 4-6 6-1
The Bullshit Russian vs Small Cat Who Doesn’t Know How To Fight part nine is here!
Skipping past the umpire getting his ear chewed off, here’s how the actual tennis went…
Tsitsipas’ Return Woes Continue
Back at the Toronto Masters last year, I wrote about the biggest differences between Tsitsipas’ and Medvedev’s returns.
You can read more about the technical details of that there - the reason I bring it up is that Tsitsipas still doesn’t view his return in the right light. After failing to break Opelka’s serve in Toronto, he said:
“But there is hope for next time, it’s all right. I struggled with my serve, it was obvious. When you get no rhythm it’s difficult. It silently ruins your game.”
His serve was broken once in that match and he failed to break serve once - and he’s worried about his serve.
He may have broken serve twice in this match v Daniil but Tsitsipas left the court with a measly 14% of his return points won having put only 51% of his returns back into play. It took until 6-5 in the first set for Tsitsipas to win a single point on the Medvedev serve.
Fine, let’s assume this’ll always be a problem for Tsitsipas.
Here’s what he could do/did a bit of in an attempt to cover up this problem.
(try hopelessly to) Make Daniil Uncomfortable
If you’re not going to break serve regularly, you gotta hold serve reliably and somehow graft the chance opening to break.
Serve Out Wide
One of the most reliable tactics for Tsitsipas to counter Medvedev’s deep court position was to use his short serve out wide in the deuce court.
The key with the slice-serve out wide was not to overuse it. I actually thought Tsitsipas did a pretty good job of varying it, starting to catch Medvedev off-guard with some T-serves at the start of the third.
Tsitsipas used plenty of T-serves in the ad-court, able to unload over the lowest part of the net to Medvedev’s weaker return wing.
I’m a fan of both serving strategies.
There just wasn’t enough -
Variety
Daniil is the hard-court baseline king. Beating him from the back takes something special.
Djokovic respected that at last year’s Paris Masters - taking a few pages out of his book, this is what I’d like to see more of from Tsitsipas…
Approach using the wide serve. Perfect neutraliser against Medvedev and perfectly executed below. We saw plenty of wide serves, I just don’t think there were enough approaches off the back of it throughout the match having been broken four times.
Approach mid-rally to the backhand. With less spin on Medvedev’s backhand, rush him enough and you may get an easy put-away.
The problem was Tsitsipas came in at the wrong times against Medvedev.
What’s the difference between the two mid-rally approaches to the backhand above? Djokovic didn’t give Medvedev the chance to load his legs whilst Tsitsipas did, a result of his forehand not being close enough to the sideline. Though it may have been a result of Tsitsipas waning physically, the fourth set was littered with desperate Tsitsipas approaches.
He actually did a pretty decent job of getting to the net on the whole. I just wish he hadn’t bailed on point construction by the end of the match and had stuck to a decent tactic.
Drop-shot: Perfectly timed drop-shot amidst a 22-shot rally to win his second return point of the match!
Again, I’d loved to see more of this but setting this up likely involves causing some lateral movement from Medvedev…
To set up the drop-shot or the mid-rally approach, I think more backhands down the line is key. Tsitsipas likes to take this shot on but is uncomfortable hitting it regularly against the pace and trajectory of Medvedev’s balls.
This is what he should be training for to find a way through the Medvedev wall, to make him uncomfortable - not to hit clean winners but use this as a foundation to find alternative ways to finish the point…
… or he could keep working on his chip-return. I’m just trying to think outside the box for you Stef you stubborn so-and-so!
For Medvedev?
No time to talk about the minutiae of Daniil’s game. Hopefully it was clear from my description of Tsitsipas’ desperation just how much of a chokehold Medvedev’s serve, return and rally temperament had on this match.
Instead we’ll look forward to an incredibly exciting final of Medvedev v Nadal. Expect…
Momentum swings. Excluding their first meeting, all three have had one player move ahead in the scoreline before an attempted comeback. The 2019 US Open final finished with Rafa eventually winning but the proceeding two matches, both at the ATP Finals, were split evenly with the loser having served for the match (Medvedev served for the match twice in 2019).
The slight majority of the rallies to go in Medvedev’s favour, particularly as the match is being played at night. Medvedev won’t have any problems going into the Nadal forehand - the onus will be on the Spaniard to take the risks.
Well-executed approaches from Nadal. We saw it in New York, we’ll likely see it here - Nadal will most definitely look to serve and volley against Medvedev and will probably not shy away from a mid-rally approach using a couple of forehands to spread the court.
Medvedev should be the favourite but be warned:
Abandon all hope ye who underestimate Rafael Nadal…
See you after the final!
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At the US Open 2019, Nadal lost just two points running around to hit the forehand from the deuce court.
In the first set alone in Australia, Nadal lost four points doing the same.
Excellent write-up! I love this quote the most:
"Abandon all hope ye who underestimate Rafael Nadal…"
You're absolutely right!! ❤️🥳😌