Australian Open 2022: Women's Draw Predictions
Jack Edward, Gavin Lang and Alex Gruskin's quarterfinal picks for the Australian Open women's draw in an improvised format.
Skip the intro if you’ve read the men’s predictions!
I had this amazing Australian Open draw prediction podcast episode planned out.
Having prepped solidly, I had a good feeling my co-hosts Gavin Lang and Alex Gruskin were going to deliver - and boy, did they ever. They were witty, intelligent, hilarious - the laughs we shared, the stats we awed at, the players we roasted!
It was such a good episode - no - the best episode we’ve ever recorded.
Then I found out Alex’s preceding technical problems had led to his voice not being recorded for the entirety of the episode.
…
So here I am, typing out the transcript for myself and Gav, opting instead to recall what Alex said in rough paraphrased bullet-points. Unfortunately, a lot of Gruskin’s natural charm is missing amidst this text dump1 but I hope you enjoy the feel of it anyway!
Sorry I’m terrible with technology and try to enjoy our women’s singles draw quarterfinalist predictions.
Top Quarter (Highest-ranked players: Barty, Sakkari, Jabeur, Osaka)
Jack: “Barty for sure. She’s got a pretty horrendous draw but I don’t count on Osaka being fit enough to make it through the draw after last week. She was playing well at times but if she’s pulling out of a semifinal, I don’t think she’s up for it personally. She should unpick big-hitters Giorgi and Anisimova and she’d struggle with Bencic should she play her but would inevitably come through. She’s just insanely good at the moment - in Adelaide, 35 consecutive holds of serve to win the title, the way she unpicked Swiatek (though she isn’t the best against top-10 players on hard-courts), same with Rybakina.
Barty anyway, self-explanatory. I think she’ll be against Sasnovich of all players. I mean, there’s gotta be a sideways one in there. My justification; Jabeur, back injury in Sydney; Pegula, definitely not looking in the best of form already, two harsh losses; Sakkari, definitely beatable at the moment, still prone to nerves. Sasnovich has shown she can beat big players. I don’t know if that’s way too sideways a take but that’s what I’m going with.”
Gav: “I’m going for Barty for all the reasons you mentioned. She’s more than capable of coming through that draw.
But I’m gonna go with Sakkari. I know she’s not been in the best of form but Sakkari (deliberates how to pronounce Sakkari, Jack says potato potato) when it comes to the majors, she did well last year. She has suffered from nerves but those experiences will help her in the big pressure moments. I think she’s good enough to win a major (sharp inhale from Jack).”
Alex:
Alex pointed out Jessica Pegula was one of the most consistent (if not thee most consistent with the help of Pliskova) hard-courters on tour last year and that she shouldn’t be underestimated even if she started the season poorly. Agreed that Jabeur might be hampered and Pegula could take advantage to move to a fourth round.
Strongly in camp Osaka. Alex said “at her best, Osaka is the greatest hard-courter in the world”. If she’s serving well, she will absolutely beat Ash Barty. Obviously this is a big opportunity for Barty - she’s won the difficult Slams, now the easy ones are left - but Osaka’s best is better than Barty’s.
Since the beginning of 2020 (Alex said that’s essentially been a year and half in COVID time), Osaka has sustained six hard-court losses that sound bad at first but peel back the layers; Fernandez at the US Open, goes on to make the final; Vondrousova (the Drouse) at the Olympics, goes on to make the final; Teichmann in Cincinnati, goes on to make the final; Sakkari in Miami, goes on to have a stellar year; Gauff in Australia; Pliskova in Brisbane. She’s doesn’t lose to bad players and is so hard to beat at her best.
Verdict? Alex very firmly sided with Osaka… I think he also ended up going for Sakkari but don’t quote me on that!
Jack: Barty v Sasnovich
Gav: Barty v Sakkari
Alex: Osaka v Sakkari
Second Quarter (Krejcikova, Badosa, Kenin, Svitolina)
Gav: “I’m going for Jil Teichmann and Paula Badosa to come through. Saw her in Cincinnati made the final last year. I like her game on hard-courts… It’s so difficult to predict the women’s draws so that’s always the excuse if any of this goes pear-shaped.
And Paula Badosa, we know the damage she can do on a hard-court. Obviously saw her at Indian Wells, always a threat, very big game. So yeah - Teichmann and Badosa in the quarters.”
Jack: “I gotta say Krejcikova is playing better than 99% of the tour - I don’t know if you saw her against Kontaveit but she saved seven match points. She is a mental behemoth, she’s scary good under pressure. I don’t think there are many players that can match her in that department - Barty to an extent on her serve? - but Krejcikova eats pressure for breakfast on serve AND return. Maybe I overrate her - Ostapenko in the third-round, definitely a threat, Azarenka as well - but I think she was playing too well to ignore.
I’m gonna pick her and go for Gauff. That’s a tough section though, Keys and Badosa, it could go either way for any of them. Yeah super impressed with Gauff, even her second match of the season against Barty - even though she lost shows she is prepared to go toe-to-toe with the best in the world.”
Alex:
Madison Keys really impressed Alex this week having found a rhythm that will be hard to break down. Definitely the favourite against Kenin and could be extremely tough for Gauff in the third.
Loved the veteran’s pick in Azarenka. Thinks she’s still got it in her for sure - he conceded Ostapenko or Krejcikova would be a terrible fourth-round for her but he has faith in Vika.
Got incredibly hyped about Gauff’s level this week. Thinks she can avenge her loss to Keys in the third and will come through an epic with Badosa in the fourth-round.
Verdict? Alex deliberated for a while but eventually went with Vika. He confidently chose Coco Gauff as her opponent.
Jack: Krejcikova v Gauff
Gav: Teichmann v Badosa
Alex: Azarenka v Gauff
Third Quarter (Muguruza, Kontaveit, Rybakina, Halep)
Jack: “One of the hardest to call for me. I was so impressed with Rybakina - obviously against Raducanu, I think she was a little overawed and has likely never played on a court that fast with as big a serve coming at her - I thought she was amazing in Adelaide. Okay, Barty unpicked her but there’s not really any players of Barty’s ilk in that section. Kontaveit maybe, difficult to ignore her, or even Tauson, maybe, but I am expecting Anett to be a little less ruthless compared to last year given the less stable conditions compared to indoors.
I’m gonna go for Rybakina and then on the other side, I’m feeling Halep. I think she’s gonna be able to get her revenge over Muguruza for her match in 2020 - straight sets but Halep could have come through that very easily - she’ll avenge that. Halep’s definitely hungry. Okay, she had that quote “my serve is shit” - her serve was shit, yeah - but she won the title in Melbourne so if she’s serving well she’ll be scary for anybody that plays her.”
Gav: “… I agree. Totally agree with everything you said there. So we finally agree on something. Yeah, Rybakina looked great against Raducanu. Halep, she’s been fantastic - she’ll definitely get her revenge against Muguruza in one of the most exciting prospects of the tournament.”
Alex:
Believes Elise Mertens shouldn’t go unnoticed having won her first two matches in her last 15 Slam appearances. Not confident she’s actually a threat deeper in the draw though.
Players that need mentioned in a stacked quarter:
Golubic playing really well even if her one-hander could get obliterated by Rybakina’s serve.
Tauson, we all know about Tauson, what she can do - her getting through would not be a surprise to anyone.
Siniakova as a first-round for Kontaveit, a different look that could spell an upset.
Collins has made the semis in Australia before, definitely shouldn’t be overlooked.
Sides with Muguruza - once she gets going, she can just fly through opponents, namely Halep, who could easily fall to her if she hits a rhythm in the fourth. Not much in her way early on too.
Mentions Shelby Rogers playing phenomenally well sometimes. Jack says the US Open fourth-round against Raducanu can’t be un-tattooed from his brain. Alex counters with her win over Barty. Jack concedes that was a solid performance and that Rogers is a pretty interesting pick.
Verdict? After calling Jack and Gav’s picks “basic”, Alex takes a stab at Rogers and believes in the power of Mugs.
Jack: Rybakina v Halep
Gav: Rybakina v Halep
Alex: Rogers v Muguruza
Bottom Quarter (Sabalenka, Swiatek, Pavlyuchenkova, Kerber)
Gav: “I know Sabalenka hasn’t been at her best recently and it’s up and down but when you look at the power she’s got, I think she’s gotta be included in the conversation.
I went for Kasatkina. Probably a bizarre choice but she’s playing well recently. I think she could maybe just - I just got a feeling she might come good and she might start producing her best form again (Jack asks who Gav would back in a Kasatkina v Swiatek match-up)… (Gav with visibly waning confidence) I’m still gonna go Kasatkina, I’ve made my pick here, I’m not gonna back down.”
Jack: “I think if that match happens Gav, Swiatek’s getting through and Swiatek is my pick. I’ve tentatively picked her, not because of Kasatkina so much, I just always think Kvitova’s got a little bit of an X-factor about her. Okay, she could easily lose in the first-round but at the same time, what I said earlier about Swiatek losing to top players on hard-court (0-3 vs top-10, 4-9 vs top-20). I think players that have got big weapons can outhit her on the surface. I’m still gonna pick her though and Kasatkina will probably get blown off the court by her if she is on.
I think her opponent - this was really hard… Sabalenka… of course she could get through her matches unscathed but there’s too much of a question mark over her head to back her. Kerber tempted me cause she’s a favourite of mine but I’m gonna back Samsonova (Alex got real excited and made it clear he was jealous of my pick). Okay she got beat by Keys but Madison was amazing, nothing to do with Samsonov’s level. I think it’s scary how big she can hit the ball and it’s all gonna click - a bit of a stretch, there’s no evidence of that happening, but… fuck it, Samsonova and Swiatek in the quarterfinal.”
Alex:
Points out Vondrousova “The Drous” could be the next best thing along with Jil Teichmann and Luidmilla Samsonova. Absolutely has the best drop-shot in the game and could go very far with her different style of play.
“We’ve all been boozy for Bouzkova.”… Doesn’t entertain the thought much further than that.
I can’t really do Alex’s “power-hitter’s country-club”2 bit justice but his metaphor basically ended with Sabalenka holding the most potential from the ground of any player… well, ever. One moment she can spray errors that make you question her ranking, the next she is landing shots she has absolutely no right to be making (“like, why are you going for that?”). The funny thing about her last two losses where she hit a combined total of 39 double faults? She almost won both of them. If she can hit her stride in the first two rounds against players that don’t possess much of a threat beyond "execute plan A”, she’ll be in the money.
On Swiatek:
“Swiatek vs Kasatkina is like that Spiderman meme where they’re pointing at one another except Swiatek is an extremely buff Spiderman.” Kasatkina maybe has a little more fitness but that’s a moot point in this match-up - their game-styles are similar but Swiatek just has more of absolutely everything. Not a nice match-up for Kasatkina at all.
Pop quiz from Alex: Who is the only player to have reached at least the fourth-round at every major last year? (Jack picks Sakkari with little confidence… does the maths and comes up with Swiatek to Alex’s delight)
Verdict? Alex was still reeling at my brave (or stupid) choice of Samsonova. He has fallen in love with the power from Sabalenka’s but doesn’t trust her. Alex reluctantly settles with Leylah Fernandez (kinda outta nowhere and secretly wanted to go more obscure) and Swiatek for the bottom quarter.
Jack: Swiatek v Samsonova
Gav: Kasatkina v Sabalenka
Alex: Swiatek v Fernandez
Champions
Jack: “I’m fascinated for yours Alex. I’ll just start cause mine’s rubbish… It’s Barty! I knew the two of us (me and Gav) would go for Barty cause we hype her a lot - obviously she deserves hype. Undisputed world #1 - I don’t think anyone plays close to her level when she’s at her very best.”
Gav: “That was my pick as well. Nicking my pick… Yep, 100%. When she’s on, you gotta feel confident in her. In front of her home fans as well, I don’t think she’ll screw it up… If Barty plays 90%, she’ll win the tournament. I’m not convinced Osaka will be at her usual high standards this year, there are question marks there.”
Alex: Points out there are no dark horses in the women’s Australian Open this year… “a horse is a horse”. Surprised Tauson wasn’t mentioned more but not crazy enough to back her to win. Alex definitely thinks Osaka could beat Barty on a hard-court if they were both at their best to which Jack concedes there have been rough losses at Slams for Barty (Muchova and Rogers last year). Jack and Gav don’t budge though. Alex convinced all it takes is the serve to be on for Naomi and the rest will be smooth sailing.
Jack: Barty
Gav: Barty
Alex: Osaka
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We’ll have Alex on in the future FOR CERTAIN - he was fantastic!
I’ll butcher it in the footnotes: I think Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka were heads of the country-club and there was a safe with the secrets to ultimate power in it and inside it just said ‘Sabalenka’ and… it segued into Ostapenko in a guest house off the grounds of the club and Madison Keys had a grounds pass… He probably rehashes this bit every other week, I’m sure we’ll get it recorded at some point!