Dark Horse Threats to Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev at the Australian Open
An analytical piece on why the ATP Cup semifinal between Roberto Bautista Agut and Hubert Hurkacz could worry the Australian Open favourites.
Last year, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev contested the Australian Open and the US Open finals, sharing the spoils 50-50.
In Grand Slams on a hard-court, the world #1 and #2 have been the players to beat with few able to contest their claims to the throne.
Following the semifinals of the ATP Cup, however, Roberto Bautista Agut defeating Hubert Hurkacz caught my attention. The styles of play of these two players could be the perfect antidote to Djokovic and Medvedev’s impenetrable defences.
I’m here to tell you why over three sections:
Other players’ struggles against Djokovic and Medvedev on hard-courts.
A breakdown of the match between RBA and Hurkacz.
Why they could cause Djokovic and Medvedev problems.
Enjoy!
Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev on Hard-Courts
It’s no secret these two have dominated hard-courts for the last few years, Djokovic having regained his form from the middle of 2018 onwards (we’ll say 2019 for tidiness) and Medvedev really hitting his stride from the middle of 2019 (2020 for tidiness).
It’s still difficult not to be amazed by the numbers these two have posted.
Not only are these two beating the rest of the field with ease, they are beating the best in the business repeatedly, Medvedev’s record against top-10 players the last couple years particularly unbelievable.
Going into the Australian Open, let’s take a look at the folk that have been able to beat them.
Novak Djokovic (H2H on HC from 2019+)
Daniil Medvedev (4-3)
Alexander Zverev (4-2)
Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2)
Roberto Bautista Agut (1-2)
Dominic Thiem (1-2)
Phillip Kohlschreiber (2-1)
Lorenzo Sonego (1-1)
Roger Federer (1-1)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-1)
Stan Wawrinka (0-1)
Daniil Medvedev (H2H on HC from 2020+)
Novak Djokovic (2-3)
Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2)
Alexander Zverev (5-1)
Pablo Carreno Busta (3-1)
Vasek Pospisil (2-1)
Reilly Opelka (2-1)
Andrey Rublev (2-1)
Kevin Anderson (1-1)
Grigor Dimitrov (1-1)
Dominic Thiem (1-1)
Dusan Lajovic (0-1)
Ugo Humbert (0-1)
Gilles Simon (0-1)
Stan Wawrinka (0-1)
One method of dispatching either of the the pair is to outhit them. Stan Wawrinka, Dominic Thiem, Andrey Rublev and Ugo Humbert (less confidently) all fall into this category - they have gone a combined 7-4 over the defined timespans.
But the first two aren’t in attendance at this year’s AO and the latter two haven’t shown us they can sustain this level of play over five sets1 (five sets would likely be needed to upset either of them).
There’s the Alexander Zverev route that nobody else can really match but he’s only notched three wins to nine losses.
There are the other one-handers that generate the heaviness on this wing required to penetrate the pairs’ defences (Lajovic, Dimitrov, Tsitsipas, Kohlschreiber) with a record of 4-4 in this time but again it’s not the most sustainable tactic.
No, I wanna talk about…
Fighting Fire With Fire
Outplaying the two at their own game has always been the most assured way of beating these two.
Of course, Djokovic and Medvedev have beaten one another the most times individually. Then there are the others with solid rally temperaments and backhands that refuse to be broken down, … Gilles Simon2, Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta are a combined 5-73 against both of them.
And after the ATP Cup, I’m convinced RBA at least is close to the form of his life. The match that convinced me? His semifinal match against somebody else with a backhand that refuses to be broken down - Hubert Hurkacz.
Let me walk you through what was working for both players and why this could be a problem for Medvedev and Djokovic.
ATP Cup Semifinals: Roberto Bautista Agut defeats Hubert Hurkacz 7-6 (6) 2-6 7-6 (5)
Bautista Agut against Hurkacz
Bautista Agut had been on fire the entirety of the ATP Cup. Going into his match with Hurkacz, he’d won all three of his matches in straight sets, the most impressive of which being a clutch win against Casper Ruud.
Accordingly, RBA saw no need to drastically change his tactics against Hurkacz. From the baseline, he was willing to lock the Pole into a backhand-to-backhand exchange (undeterred by Hurkacz’s quality backhand), looking for the right forehand to play from the ad-court corner.
The play was so difficult for Hurkacz to break out of without taking on a degree of risk - unsurprisingly, when the serve was taken out of the equation, the percentages tipped in RBA’s favour more often than not.
In rallies of six shots or more4, excluding the second set where RBA clearly dipped a little due to heat exhaustion, RBA won 63% of the points.
RBA forced an error or hit a winner with his forehand 26 times to seven forehand unforced errors throughout the match (three of these unforced errors were in the second set!).
Reliable, impenetrable, secure. All adjectives that come to mind when RBA is in this kind of mood, the quicker conditions only strengthening this pattern of play. The best backhands in the world would struggle to counter RBA’s insane rally temperament and comfortability in these conditions.
Step forward Hubert Hurkacz to offer up a resistance…
Hurkacz against Bautista Agut
Hurkacz did well to recognise Bautista Agut was winning the majority of the longer rallies (bar a second set blip).
As the third set wore on, Hurkacz looked to shorten the points wherever he could by moving forward.
He could move forward from the start of the point…
Hurkacz won 22 of the 26 first-serve points he struck wide in the ad court (his favourite serve), opening up the court to allow a solid transition forward.
… and he could move forward in the rally.
Hurkacz won 20 of the 25 points where he made an approach shot. The most prolific approach was to Bautista Agut’s backhand (16/25, lost 2/16 he made).
Hurkacz is undoubtedly one of the best up-and-coming players at the net we’ve seen in a long time and came very close in this match. He just couldn’t execute on a couple of points…
Though he used it to win a lot of points, Hurkacz’s forehand was the only thing that let him down throughout the match - his down the line forehand still lacks consistency (also made nine unforced errors down the line), preferring the margin of a cross-court or inside-out forehand.
When he does make it though, (in my opinion) his ability to mop up at net goes unsurpassed by any of his peers.
Why is this relevant for Novak and Daniil?
Djokovic and Medvedev are beaten most often by their own style of play and RBA is a master of the backhand cross-court rally. His secure ad court forehand will have plenty of bite and his lack of service power will be mitigated by the quicker courts.
He could be a nightmare for either player.
It’s less obvious why Hurkacz could be dangerous…
Hurkacz can use the wide serve to sublime effect. From Djokovic’s Paris Masters win against Medvedev, we saw that the wide shot combined with a short volley follow-up can be consistently lethal against the Russian.
Hurkacz being solid from the backhand and at the net is a good counter against these two. He won’t be broken down cross-court and, if he can land his forehand down the line consistently (which will stay low in the court), he could put either of their backhands in danger (more Medvedev’s than Djokovic’s given how flat it is). I mean, Vasek Pospisil won a match against Medvedev using volleying technique alone!
Hurkacz is slightly more suited to Medvedev given his ability to approach to the backhand whilst RBA is slightly more suited to Djokovic given there is more likely to be more extended rallies (Medvedev’s serve is bigger).
Pay attention to where these two land in the draw; alarm bells could be ringing for either the world #1 or #2.
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Rublev is 3-5 in fifth sets (no top-10 players) whilst Humbert is a woeful 0-5 (also no top-10 players).
Who could forget that match six years (?!) ago between Djokovic and Simon at the Australian Open. Djokovic came through in five sets but committed over 100 unforced errors along the way!
Excluding Djokovic knocking himself out of the 2020 US Open with the ball to the line judge’s throat.
Anything between 0-5 shots would be somewhat influenced by the serve, ESPECIALLY in this match-up as the lack of pace on Hurkacz’s shots and RBA’s rally temperament often led to a serve + 2 rather than a serve + 1.