2021 ATP Tour: A Year of Stats
The highlights of the ATP Tour this year centred around stats from 'On The Line' articles.
What a year it’s been!
It’s been a long, exciting road covering it all with ‘On The Line’, having written my first article all the way back in January.
In this special 50th issue, I wanted to honour the journey with a look back on the highlights of this year’s ATP Tour, ‘On The Line’-stat-style (if you’re reading this via email, I would open in-browser to get each and every one of the jam-packed GIFs!).
Enjoy the trip down memory lane x
King of the Australian Open: Djokovic defeats Medvedev (January)
“In the Australian Open final, Djokovic hit his forehand 44% of the time whilst Medvedev hit his forehand 49% of the time.”
Back when I was just a blogging tyke, I wrote a fairly rudimentary article on Djokovic’s win over Medvedev in the final of the Australian Open.
Respecting Daniil’s backhand as the greatest in the world1, Novak overloaded Daniil’s forehand at the start of the match. On the quicker Australian courts, the lack of ability on Medvedev’s defensive forehand was exposed.
The Russian couldn’t find the answers to the barrage, clutching at huge (missed) second serves and failing to find an area of the court to which he could reliably pressure Novak with his forehand.
An imperious start to the year from the world #1!
Pole Position at the Miami Masters: Hurkacz defeats Sinner (March)
“Sinner’s average groundstroke speed was 76 miles per hour, which was considerably harder than 70 miles per hour from Hurkacz.”
Hubert Hurkacz took on Jannik Sinner in the first Masters final of the year at the Miami Open. With a maiden Masters title on the line (lol), the nerves were jangling on either side of the court.
Hubi was the one that dealt with them better. The Miami courts are slower than your average tour-level hard-court - with Jannik feeling the pressure, Hubi slow-balled his opponent, giving him very little pace to work with throughout the match. It was enough to take the first set and move a double break up in the second.
Of course, slow-balling Sinner isn’t always a good idea but given the conditions, the occasion and the level of Sinner’s serve2, Hurkacz got his tactics spot on.
Maiden Masters in Monte Carlo: Tsitsipas defeats Rublev (April)
“Tsitsipas’s previous best average second-serve winning percentage at any tournament came at the 2018 Monte Carlo Masters, where he won 59.1%; this week he won a stellar 65.4% of his second-serve points.”
Only weeks later, another maiden Masters battle ensued between Tsitsipas and Rublev. What could have been an electric match was dampened by the Greek’s phenomenal performance, matching his form throughout the tournament.
The biggest difference? Tsitsipas won over double the percentage of second-serve points that Rublev won.
His second-serve was over 20% faster on average continuously allowing him to play a forehand as his first shot. Conversely, Rublev was constantly put on the back foot, Tsitsipas also finding the forehand as his first shot when returning, finishing points quickly on both his and Rublev’s second serves.
Rublev still has a lot of progress to make on this shot.
For Tsitsipas, however, this was the shot that allowed him to excel during the clay-season.
Rough Draw in Rome: Nadal defeats Djokovic (May)
“Rafa won 52.3% of the total points he played in Rome… Never, in his 88 singles titles runs, has he lost a lower percentage of the total points played.”
The toughest title Rafa’s ever won?
Rafa had to come through Sinner, Shapovalov (saved two match points), Zverev, Opelka (who was kick-serving out the stadium) and Djokovic to win the title.
In the final, Djokovic kept things far closer than he had in Paris the year before, utilising his cross-court forehand better than he had previously (more on that soon…). Nadal was able to wrestle overall control of the match, however, able to shorten the points at the most the crucial of moments.
Nadal’s struggle against Djokovic in the final was an appropriate precursor to Paris, however…
“As the two gladiators went to shake hands, for a fleeting moment, there was a wry smile on Novak’s face. He may have lost but Djokovic had proved he could remain competitive on the terre battue against the King of Clay. Djokovic might fancy his chances should they meet again at Roland Garros next month…”
Usurped at the French Open: Djokovic defeats Nadal (June)
“In the third set, Djokovic won 16 of the 17 points where he had Nadal in the tramlines due to his forehand.”
In what will surely go down as one of the most important wins of his career, Djokovic defeated Nadal at the French Open for the second time in his career in a superb semifinal.
Hitting to Nadal’s backhand has always been an option on clay but you run the risk of the run-around forehand going into this wing, Nadal’s strongest shot. To lock Nadal into the backhand corner, Djokovic had perfected his short-angled forehand in preparation for the match, a shot that went unanswered by Rafa.
In the highest quality set of one of the highest quality matches of Novak’s career, this shot won Djokovic some extremely important points.
(Also, probably the most insightful piece I wrote all year!)
Coming Forward Under Pressure at Wimbledon: Djokovic defeats Berrettini (July)
“Throughout the match, Djokovic approached the net on 17% of the total points played - on pressure points, Djokovic approached the net 33% of the time… if we exclude pressure points where he hit a clutch serve or double faulted, he approached the net on over half of his pressure points!”
Djokovic and his team knew the numbers - historically, Novak has had a better success rate at the net than at the baseline at Wimbledon.
With this in mind against Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon final, Djokovic came forward very frequently on the most important points. This erased the danger of Berrettini’s slice backhand and allowed him to dictate his own fate.
Djokovic’s net game has improved so much over the years - this was a win crafted by the most modern version of the man.
“Djokovic the net player?
Not really.
Djokovic the pressure point net player?
Definitely.”
Returning Serve in Toronto: Medvedev defeats Opelka (August)
“Tsitsipas total returns made vs Opelka = 57/108 = 53%. Medvedev on the other hand… total returns made vs Opelka = 51/72 = 71%.”
The Toronto Masters was a perfect opportunity to highlight a stark difference between the #2 and #3 players in the world.
In the semifinal vs Opelka, Tsitsipas made just over 50% of his returns.
Medvedev, however… armed with his fantastic two-hander and with his stance about seven metres behind the baseline, he had absolute control over his groundstrokes3 *ahem* returns, able to pull apart any tactic thrown at him by the big-serving American.
Daniil made 71% of his returns and won an outstanding 44% of his return points.
The best returner in the world was primed and ready for the last Slam of the year…
“The North American hard courts are lively and he’s returning sublimely - with a few tweaks on the serve, he may go into the US Open the favourite.”
Calendar Slam Denied at the US Open: Medvedev defeats Djokovic (September)
“Given a neutral ball, Medvedev primarily targeted Djokovic’s backhand [with his forehand]. This sounds like a riskier shot but Medvedev didn’t flirt with the sidelines - he primarily went closer to the middle of court (55% of the time), goading Djokovic into going back cross-court (the safest response), straight into Medvedev’s wheelhouse…”
Medvedev learnt from his mistakes in Australia.
When given a forehand, Medvedev hit near the middle of the court but towards the Djokovic backhand, forcing his opponent into more backhand-cross-court rallies.
He had also worked on his defensive forehand, readily preparing himself for the Djokovic forehand.
Throw in some huge second serves from the word go and a nervy Djokovic resorted to serve and volley tactics to keep things competitive. It wasn’t enough in the end, however, the Russian holding a bit too strong a grip on the match.
Though he was denied the Calendar Slam, Djokovic got what he’d always wanted in winning the hearts of the crowd
Medvedev though…
Awkward in Indian Wells: Norrie defeats Basilashvili (October)
“Eventually, the width on Cam’s backhand pinning him into a neutral position, Basilashvili overheated, hitting 15 forehand unforced errors in the third set alone… Where others might have resorted to plan B, Cam stubbornly stuck to plan A.”
Nikoloz Basilashvili is one of the few players on tour able to hit through the stagnant conditions of the Californian desert. For a set and a half of their final in Indian Wells, Cam Norrie felt the full wrath of the Georgian’s weaponry, unable to to tame him as his backhands sat lamely in the middle of the court.
Rather than panicking and changing tactic, however, Norrie dug in, attempting to get his backhands wider and lower to neutralise Basilashvili.
Acutely aware that he wasn’t executing to a high enough level, Cam’s tennis IQ won him the most important match of his career.
Approaching in Paris: Djokovic defeats Medvedev (November)
“Arguably the best spot-server of the last couple of years, Djokovic placed his serves impeccably against Medvedev, well enough to come in off the back of over 50% of his first-serves.”
Djokovic had been blown off the court by Medvedev in their final in New York, failing to win a set in a Slam final for only the fourth time in his career.
But from that loss and many of their previous matches, the Serb drew up a full-proof battle plan. Despite serving 3mph slower than usual at the US Open, he was incredibly successful serving and volleying and approaching the net mid-rally.
Consequently, Djokovic came forward over and over again against Medvedev - he used immaculately-placed wide serves and short volleys into the open space to take advantage of Medvedev’s deep return position.
Recognising Medvedev’s defensive forehand had improved, he also used mid-rally approaches to Medvedev’s backhand to force high balls.
Djokovic showed he was more than just a pressure-point-net-player in this match; Djokovic 34.0 showed he is an accomplished net player.
Absolute mastery of the game and its tactics from Novak who hadn’t played for a few months prior to the tournament.
Second Serve 2.0 in Turin: Zverev defeats Djokovic (November)
“[Zverev’s] putting more and more first serves in the court whilst able to hit 130mph+ regularly (5.1% increase in first serves in) - this is making him less nervous going for those first-serves-disguised-as-second-serves and it’s taking more pressure off of arguably his biggest weakness.”
In the semifinals of the season’s finale, we saw Alexander Zverev defeat Novak Djokovic in one of his best matches of the year. The German’s stats have steadily climbed as the year has progressed - this match was the culmination of those efforts, covering his second serve better than ever before.
By making far more first serves than he used to, Zverev was able to take risks on the second-serve against Novak, delivering first-serves-disguised-as-second-serves in some of the high pressure moments.
Zverev showed incredible rally temperament during the match, more so than in any of their previous match-ups, winning 10 more rallies over nine shots. Similarly to Medvedev in New York, 42% of Zverev’s shots were centrally placed, denying Novak an angle.
Improvements to Zverev’s first-serve allowed him to play a steadier game against the world #1 - he would go onto win the ATP Finals title, targeting Daniil Medvedev’s forehand in the final.
Now let’s see him do it in a Slam…
Medvedev’s backhand beat the Serb’s in all facets - one more error forced by the backhand, one less unforced error and three clean winners to Djokovic’s zero.
Sinner’s inability to win free points on his serve put even more pressure on the groundstrokes - the placement of his serve was relatively poor back in March.
Medvedev stands so far back in the court, his technique is practically the same as his groundstrokes. No abbreviated swing, he can take a full cut in the ball.