How Garbine Muguruza beat Anett Kontaveit at the 2021 WTA Finals
Anett Kontaveit came into the WTA Finals as the in-form player - Garbine Muguruza beat her twice to claim the title in Guadalajara. Here's an analysis of how she overcame the Estonian.
Garbine Muguruza spoiled the party for Anett Kontaveit at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara.
Kontaveit had come into the event with a 26-3 record in her last seven events. Though she was able carry that form into the rest of her matches at the season-ending tournament, Muguruza had her number - she defeated Kontaveit not once, but twice during the event, both in straight sets.
The former world #1 had played a less-than-stellar season post-Dubai, going 19-12 since winning her third Masters title.
How did the “home”1 player flip the script to down the seemingly inexorable Estonian?
Coping With The Conditions
If you’ve been keeping up with the tournament, you’ve probably heard it 100 times already but it’s gotta be said.
Guadalajara sits approximately 5,200 feet above sea-level. The high altitude makes the ball a lot harder to control, sailing through the air easier than it would under ordinary conditions.
The tournament introduced different balls to offset this somewhat but it didn’t stop some players from having a clear advantage over others.
Aggressive baseliners could find it difficult to consistently land their shots, especially those with flatter strokes.
In this match-up, Kontaveit hits her forehand with an eastern grip2 whilst Muguruza uses an extreme semi-western grip, imparting a lot more topspin on the ball.
Advantage Muguruza.
Big servers could have an advantage. Points are shorter on average at high altitudes so if you can consistently get on the front foot with a good serve, you’re in the money.
In this match-up, Kontaveit has historically won less free points on serve than Muguruza. She also stands three inches shorter than the Spaniard which is a factor when getting the ball up and over the net is an issue.
Advantage Muguruza.
All of these advantages were only exacerbated at night - though the altitude has the same effect, the ball shoots off the court slower than it would during the day, lessening the weight of aggressive shots.
Kontaveit played three matches at night: she lost to Muguruza, narrowly won against Sakkari (four more unforced errors than winners from the baseline, only her fourth three-set match in her last 29 wins) and lost again to Muguruza.
Four sets played and four sets won for Garbine - here’s how she was able to consistently take advantage of the conditions against the WTA’s most in-form player.
Muguruza: Capitalising On The Serve
Efficient First Serve Points
In their first match, Muguruza was Mugu-ruthless on her first serve.
Only 46% were returned by Kontaveit and she won 81% of her first points in total. It was very difficult for Kontaveit to win points off the first serve in this match, let alone actually break the Muguruza serve.
The wide serve in the deuce court in particular saw 13 Kontaveit forehands fail to find the court. Though she favoured this serve, she spread her first serve direction appropriately to keep Kontaveit on her toes.
The second match wasn’t quite as simple, however.
Muguruza spread her service direction equally to be more unpredictable but Kontaveit was able to return 64% of Muguruza’s first serves, having accustomed slightly better to the conditions than she had in her first match.
No matter - the real star of the show was Muguruza’s +1 shot.
Muguruza showed beautiful variation on her first shot after her first serve - she didn’t try to hit her forehand over her backhand, instead opting to control the centre of the court and take as much time away from her opponent as possible.
Though it looks as though Muguruza was targeting the forehand from these GIFs, she actually hit to both of Kontaveit’s wings an equal number of times following the first serve, prioritising efficiency and the element of surprise over a pattern of play.
(In fact, only twice during the entirety of the match did Muguruza have to hit more than three shots in one of her service points3!)
Having your opponent knowing what’s coming isn’t a bad thing if you can execute a pattern of play that’s going to make them uncomfortable - for Muguruza, however, the key on first serve was to keep Kontaveit guessing.
Patterns On The Second Serve + 1
Where Muguruza was unpredictable on the first serve + 1, she was predictable on the second serve + 1.
Go aggressive on the + 1 shot, taking on risk if necessary (that stat above on hitting three shots or less a service point applies to the second serve too!).
Hit to the Kontaveit forehand. It was the shot that haemorrhaged 26 unforced errors in their first match and though it was steadier in their second, it was the more attackable of the two wings, Kontaveit struggling to generate the topspin required when on the back foot.
Consequently, Muguruza hit to the forehand 12 times to four on the first shot after her second serve.
This put the onus on Kontaveit to come up with the goods on return for fear of having to defend on her forehand.
It worked a treat - Muguruza won 67% of her second serve points.
Kontaveit: (Failure To) Capitalise On The Serve
Mixing It Up…
Firstly, credit where credits due.
In her first match vs Muguruza, Kontaveit had predominantly served wide on both the deuce and ad sides, looking to create the space to dominate on the following shot. Muguruza caught wind of this and as a result, 73% of Kontaveit’s first serves were returned.
In their second match, Kontaveit split her first serves evenly to either wing. With Muguruza unable to anticipate where the serve was going to be directed, Kontaveit saw only 53% of her first serves come back into play, a vast improvement on the previous percentage.
… But Failing To Capitalise
Here’s a spicy stat for you, however.
Though Kontaveit boosted her unreturned first serve rate by 20%, her first serve won percentage dropped by 6%.
Kontaveit was finding strong first serves but wasn’t capitalising on the next shot. Throughout her insane title run the last few months, I spoke about the importance of the Kontaveit forehand cross-court followed by the forehand down the line in her success, this pattern of play completely exposing her opponents.
She was finding the variation on the serve like never before but her + 1 shot execution was abysmal. She nearly completely avoided this pattern of play, her margin for error on the short-angle cross-court forehand and/or the forehand down the line just too high in these conditions on both shots, instead opting for depth off the forehand or the cross-court backhand4 to set up a short ball
Without the ability to consistently execute a winning game plan, Kontaveit was left clutching at straws at times.
Just look at these two second serves to save break points.
Muguruza had a winning game plan on serve; despite her best efforts to learn from their first match, Kontaveit did not.
Garbine Muguruza: WTA Finals Champion
With the conditions how they were, the serve mattered A LOT to both players’ respective games.
Kontaveit delivered a higher level of serve than I was expecting, enough to make the match competitive. It wasn’t enough to cover up her inability to attack consistently on the forehand, however, and Muguruza exploited this to great effect.
After Garbine found her groove on serve following her first set against Krejcikova, there was no looking back as the Spaniard rolled eight consecutive sets, having her serve broken just three more times.
Sprinkle some sublime serving with an appropriate amount of direction to Kontaveit’s forehand, all executed at a consistently high level, and the title was hers for the taking.
What’s next?
Honestly, the conditions played a huge part in Kontaveit’s two straight sets losses. I’m not saying Muguruza wouldn’t have won but to see Kontaveit miles away from her best game in four consecutive sets against the same player, under the same conditions, despite being the hottest player on tour - that’s no coincidence. She’ll surely bounce back in time for Australia.
For Garbine, however….
Yes, the conditions favoured her but, in what’s been a pretty spotty year for her, delivering such a high level of play against four top-10 players…
She’s definitely shown she’s still got what it takes to win another major.
Well done Garbine!
New balls please!
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Muguruza was born in Venezuela and moved to Spain when she was six years old. She said she felt the crowd’s support as soon as she arrived.
“That it was played in Latin America happens once in a lifetime. I felt the support from the first moment and the motivation grew.”
I am 90% sure about this looking at pictures but am willing to hear otherwise! At the very least, it’s a flatter stroke than Muguruza’s extreme semi-western forehand.
If you play tennis, have you ever practiced that drill where you have to finish the point in three shots or less? This was an absolute clinic of that!
Also inconsistent with 16 unforced errors for the same reason as the forehand.
Could you explain why muguruza struggled in the first two matches in the round robin?
Could you explain why muguruza struggled in the first two matches in the round robin?