Novak Djokovic wins the Paris Masters: Final Analysis
An analysis of Djokovic's volleying masterclass versus Daniil Medvedev in the Paris Masters final.
Just Novak Djokovic doing Novak Djokovic things? It’s easy to take the Serb’s dominance for granted but this week, he outclassed himself.
The man doesn’t play for two months, rocks up in Paris with the kids in tow and wins a record-extending sixth title. In the process, he edges in front of Rafa with Masters #37 and breaks his tie with Pete Sampras by securing his seventh year-end #1 finish.
To top it off, Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final, arguably the closest challenger to his eternal hardcourt reign in recent times - the man that denied him the Calendar Slam only two months ago.
How did Djokovic get his revenge?
Here’s my analysis of the latest chapter in the enthralling Djokovic v Medvedev series…
What Went Right When It All Went Wrong
Last time Djokovic and Medvedev met at the US Open, I framed my analysis around the match essentially being a tactical culmination of the pair’s previous eight meetings.
This time, I’ll be focussing on that US Open match as it played a significant role in the how this match played out1.
Djokovic discussed this in his post-match interview.
“I knew that it takes the best effort to beat Daniil who is in tremendous form, you know, he beat me quite comfortably in the finals of New York so I learned my lesson, I analysed that match and I tried to do things better on the court today, especially in the second and third.”
After reading issue 36 of the On The Line blog, Djokovic had a clear takeaway from his US Open match - though his legs were stiff with nerves, his serve 3mph slower than usual, he still had so much success at the net.
18 of 20 serve and volley points won.
66% success rate on net points.
26% of points played at the net.
Positive numbers in a match where there wasn’t much to be positive about, his lifejacket in a sea of Medvedev groundstrokes.
Going into the match relying on the baseline alone was essentially a roll of the dice. Just look at the number of baseline points Djokovic has been able to win against Medvedev in their previous six meetings.
Despite being baseline royalty, victory from the back of the court hasn’t always determined the outcome of their matches - sure enough, the same trend continued in Paris, Medvedev winning five more points from the baseline than Djokovic.
With Medvedev also dominating in terms of unreturned serves2, Djokovic has been pushed further and further towards the net as their rivalry has developed.
Not only does the history of their rivalry in different areas of the court suggest sticking to the baseline might be a risky strat, the speed of the courts in Paris would play directly into the hands of Medvedev were he to employ the safe-target tactics he did in New York.
This is why Djokovic came to the net so often, why net approaches were a part of his Plan A in Bercy.
Here’s how he put that plan into practice.
Serve And Approach
It doesn’t take an analyst to notice this one.
Djokovic served and approached3 on 31 occasions, losing just three points when doing so.
Three?!
How does one post these numbers?!
Spot(less) Serving
Something we still overlook perhaps?
Arguably the best spot-server of the last couple of years, Djokovic placed his serves impeccably against Medvedev, well enough to come in off the back of over 50% of his first serves.
Placement of serve became an even more significant factor given the direction Djokovic served against Medvedev.
Though Djokovic prioritised neither the backhand nor the forehand, he did choose to serve out wide rather than down the T on the majority of his net approaches.
Give your opponent time serving-approaching out wide and it can be very easy to get passed, especially against Medvedev who is hardly averse to lacing a return down the line (going down the T gives you less court to cover on your opponent’s pass).
If you get the serve out wide bang on however, the advantage over the T serve is obvious - you’ve opened up a massive space for your first volley.
Short But Sweet
Do you see a pattern with the volleys?
Djokovic hit his first volley short into the open court to exploit Medvedev’s deep return position, increasing the amount of ground he had to cover. Short volleys also made use of the slow courts, giving Daniil less time than he would have had on a quicker court (the last GIF above is the best example of the repeatability of this tactic!).
If Djokovic hit his first volley deep, Medvedev’s being camped out behind the baseline gave him more time to set up the pass.
So far, so successful!
Djokovic’s net exploits didn’t end with the serve, however…
Mid-Rally Approach
How does one approach the net mid-gruelling-rally against one of the best passers in the game?
Novak managed it 19 times, winning a staggering 14 of these points4.
There were two tactical keys to pulling off this strategy.
Approach using the forehand. Like most players and perhaps contrary to assumption, Novak finds it easier to attack using his forehand than his backhand.
14 of his 19 mid-rally approaches were after striking a forehand.
Hit big to Daniil’s backhand. Again, probably not what most were expecting but the Russian possesses a decent, dipping forehand pass - rush him on his flat backhand and force him to hit high and, hey presto, your volley will hopefully be easy-osey.
Djokovic hit 10 of his 19 mid-rally approaches to the backhand, winning 9 of these approaches (won 5/9 approaches to Med forehand).
It didn’t always work but it allowed Djokovic to constantly keep Medvedev out of his comfort zone, never allowing the rally to go on for too long where he could prevent it.
Pressure Point Net Player?
Back in July, I dubbed Djokovic a pressure point net player after he clutched his way to a sixth Wimbledon title.
Last Sunday, I saw shades of a different Novak.
At Wimbledon, throughout the tournament, Djokovic had saved the majority of his net plays for the pressure points, where he had to step up to the plate on a surface that lends itself to aggressive net play.
At the US Open, against Medvedev, his trips to the net had looked like a back-up plan, desperation in the face of adversity.
In Paris, Djokovic entered the arena with net play his plan A. Taking the points to the forecourt against Medvedev whenever he could, drawing from the positives of a harsh defeat, Djokovic repeatedly bombarded Medvedev with net approaches never allowing him to settle. It eventually took its toll and Medvedev unravelled for a moment in the third, handing Djokovic an unassailable double break in the blink of an eye.
Though we’ve seen players use similar tactics against Medvedev in the past5, I’d still argue this was, on the whole, a surprise.
Djokovic was into the net from the first game, taking it to Medvedev from the word “PLAY” rather than reacting to the Russian’s tricky game.
Bigger picture also, prior to a couple of years ago, I’d never have expected this to be Djokovic’s weapon of choice facing the best baseliner in the world.
But here we are - Djokovic 34.0 marches on and the unbiased among us can’t help but twirl our moustaches and “touché” in appreciation.
See you next week!
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It should be noted that it had no bearing on the mental game of either player, the pair having established themselves as mental leviathans of the game. Medvedev alluded to this:
“It's impossible to have any upper hand psychologically speaking on him… But this could be the case for me as well. If we take for instance the last weeks, I lost against Grigor [Dimitrov], [Andrey] Rublev and Novak. So the next time that I will play these three opponents this question shouldn't be raised. 'Will Daniil be affected psychologically?' No.”
None of these matches account for the serving battle between the two (unreturned serves + double faults) - Djokovic hasn’t served a better combination of unreturned serves and double faults in any of these matches, though he equalled Medvedev in Australia.
Rather than pigeonholing Djokovic to serve and volleys, a serve and approach also includes points where Djokovic came forward immediately after the serve, potentially hitting a groundstroke in the forecourt rather than a volley.
The intent remains the same on both types of point but serve and approach encompasses more points.
It should be noted I’ve included serve + 1s so these numbers are slightly flattering for Novak.
Nadal at the US Open final in 2019 comes to mind… Again though, the net play was far less frequent than Djokovic v Medvedev in Paris plus it’s difficult to say if Nadal came into the match with this strategy in mind.
Novak Djokovic wins the Paris Masters: Final Analysis
I have noticed that when Djokovic sliced to Med's backhand most of the time Med will hit a predictable backhand crosscourt short back to Djokovic's backhand side, like during the last championship point. I am wondering if this is also part of Djokovic's game plan to create based on this tendency?