Anett Kontaveit: Improved Player Analysis
After winning her fourth title in three months at the Transylvania Open, there's seemingly no stopping Anett Kontaveit. We explore the improvements she's made under the tutelage of Dmitry Tursunov.
Can anyone stop Anett Kontaveit?
By winning the Transylvania Open last Sunday, Kontaveit improves her record since August, when she teamed up with her new coach Dmitry Tursunov, to 26-3. She’s won four of the last seven tournaments she’s entered, defeated five of her seven top-20 opponents and gone 54-9 in sets in that time.
Kontaveit has improved her ranking of #23 in the world at the start of the year to a blistering career-high of #8, qualifying for the WTA Finals for the first time in the process, edging out her good friend Ons Jabeur (here’s Jabeur’s brilliant reaction).
I think it’s safe to assume the Kontaveit-Tursunov partnership is going well.
How did Tursunov help Kontaveit overturn a five-match losing streak to turn her into the player to beat going into Guadalajara?
Let’s find out!
Kontaveit-Tursunov: Controlling The Power
A former world #20 ranked player, Dmitry Tursunov played a very aggressive brand of tennis himself, preferring faster surfaces that catered to his style of play.
He also led Aryna Sabalenka to her first tour titles back in 2018, controlling the unbridled power of the Belarusian’s game to bulldoze all that stood before her.
When it comes to advice, Tursunov is unsurprisingly no stranger to tapping into the potential of big-hitters.
“I felt she has this internal aggression in her game, suppressed in some way and that's what I felt she should tap into. I wanted to bring that aggressive Anett on court more, and just work on the things that can give her the confidence to be aggressive… If you try to be aggressive but don't have anything that supports it, you just get erratic and hit balls into the back fence."
Kontaveit has made nods towards the same improvements, stating it’s given her much more confidence on court.
“I just think I'm playing in a more positive and more secure way, not doing too much but being aggressive. I think I'm moving great. I'm looking at things in a more positive way, which I think translates in my game.”
Controlled, secure aggression is the name of the game - not taking on too much risk but being able to dictate points time and time again.
How does this translate to the court?
Kontaveit’s Improvements
From Ostrava to Moscow to Transylvania, there is an area of Kontaveit’s game that she has repeatedly been able to utilise to storm her way to three indoor titles - the forehand.
Neutral? Lethal!
Let’s get a little statistical…
I’ve put together Kontaveit’s numbers for the year and compared them to her performance at these indoors tournaments.
Rather than simply saying it’s green across the board - KoNtAvEiT iS jUsT bEtTeR - it’s important to focus on the lightest and darkest shades of green on the table.
Kontaveit has made relatively minor improvements to her first serve, ace and first serve return percentages - this is an indication that when the serve plays a role, Kontaveit isn’t breaking a ton of new boundaries.
It’s the second serve and second serve return percentages where she has made a massive impact. Both have improved by 6.9% from earlier this season - when the serve is neutralised, Kontaveit is making leaps and bounds.
Certainly watching Anett play, she looks to be taking on risky returns, pressuring the opponent from the get-go.
There’s no significant technical or strategical change to her return, however - she can afford to take more risks on the return by winning more points in general.
And Kontaveit is winning more points in general because of her forehand.
The Forehand Strategy
To kick off, there are six matches in Kontaveit’s indoor title run where stats are available on all of her shots1.
Given Kontaveit is doing the most damage when the serve isn’t a factor, I’ve broken down where Kontaveit is winning her points from the baseline in these matches to determine her groundstroke strategy.
Forehand winners/forced errors (over six matches): 51
Backhand winners/forced errors (over six matches): 35
So Kontaveit hits more winners/forces more errors with her forehand than her backhand…
“You call yourself a tennis analyst?!”
Okay, sorry, yeah, a professional tennis player is more likely to finish the point with their forehand than their backhand - big whoop.
Let’s break it down further by looking at where Kontaveit is exerting the most pressure.
The dominating pattern of play from these graphics? Go big cross-court into her opponent’s forehand and finish into the open space in the ad court.
It’s easy to see why Kontaveit is forcing so many errors from her opponent’s forehand. Her opponents know that if they don’t respond with enough aggression, the following ball will get obliterated.
On defence or offence, Kontaveit has been able to come up with outstanding down the line forehands - as soon as Kontaveit hits even a half-decent cross-court forehand, her opponent is in trouble due to the quality of her forehand down the line.
Adding to this, she very rarely hits her forehand down the line in response to a backhand down the line - Kontaveit is learning when to pull the trigger by consistently trying to force this pattern of play, never going for a shot that isn’t on.
Repeatable, terrifying aggression from the Estonian’s forehand.
The Woman to beat in Guadalajara?
Is all the hype…
… justified? Well, after a bit of statistical dissection, I’d say Kontaveit’s forehand is indeed biblical.
Okay, at Indian Wells, where the surface is a lot slower, we saw Kontaveit’s forehand have far less effect…
But on a fast indoor surface, Tursunov has helped Kontaveit find a simple pattern of play that has given her bags of confidence going into any match.
The WTA Finals will be on a slower, outdoor surface, however - will her confidence be enough to win in Guadalajara?
There are three women that I believe could be a difficult match-up.
Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova have the serving power to potentially keep her from teeing off early in the rallies.
Iga Swiatek may be able to neutralise Kontaveit’s cross-court forehand with a deep ball to the backhand, pacey but close enough to the middle to keep plenty of margin for error (see Medvedev’s tactics vs Djokovic at the US Open this year).
Loaded with form, for me, Kontaveit still comes into her final event of the year as the favourite.
It’s the rest of the field that will have to respond to Anett Kontaveit.
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This pool of players includes two of Kontaveit’s opponents from each of her indoor tournaments; Simona Halep (Transylvania), Anhelina Kalinina (Transylvania), Ekaterina Alexandrova (Moscow), Garbine Muguruza (Moscow), Maria Sakkari (Ostrava) and Petra Kvitova (Ostrava).
Though the sample size is limited, most of these players are high-ranked so the quality of opponent is less likely to be in doubt (though they are outside the top 20, Alexandrova gave Kontaveit the hardest time of any of her opponents and Kalinina is having a breakout season).