Andy Murray: Moving forward at Indian Wells
Though Murray went on to lose to Alexander Zverev, his comeback win against Carlos Alcaraz in the second-round showed us he is improving week by week.
All in all, it’s been a season of steady improvements for Andy Murray.
From stringing together four wins in his Biella Challenger final run back in February to winning two matches at a Slam for the first time in four years in July, Murray went on to produce to his best level at the US Open in September (he had the world #3 on the ropes) - since then, he has made a good account of himself in each of his tournament appearances, losing to the world #10 and #13 in his two losses.
Things have been moving gradually in the right direction for a while now - after his second-round win at Indian Wells earlier this week, however, I’m inclined to say Murray has taken a massive step forward.
Murray beat Carlos Alcaraz, an up-and-coming 18-year-old phenom whose game is based on physicality and power, attributes he’d used to become the youngest Grand Slam quarterfinalist in 31 years just a month prior.
I’d like to walk you through how Murray was able to change the dynamic of the match after going a set down and why this dogged comeback could be a significant moment in Murray’s overall comeback.
How Andy Murray defeated Carlos Alcaraz 5-7 6-3 6-2
Though Murray was essentially handed a 3-0 0-40 lead by Alcaraz, he was unable to capitalise on his lead - Murray’s tactical radar was just a little off for the first set or so as he struggled to win enough points.
Set 1
Going to the forehand early
It was clear Murray went into the match looking to settle into backhand to backhand exchanges. Alcaraz’s forehand is his strongest weapon - staying in a cross-court backhand exchange rarely gave the Spaniard an easy way of finishing the point.
Of course, this is a sound tactic and it won him a number of points in the first set. Where Murray fell a bit short, however, was in when and how he chose to break this pattern of play in going to the Alcaraz forehand.
Too keen to move Alcaraz forward
Dropping the ball short against Alcaraz is maybe a good tactic in principal, preventing him from attacking the ball as easily as he would like and moving him forward to a position where he is less comfortable.
Murray overplayed the drop shot/slice in the first set, however, trying to get Alcaraz uncomfortable off of the wrong balls.
Again, Murray won himself a few points in the first set with some short balls but he also lost a large number of points from a neutral position in the rally by attempting a difficult drop shot - this is a particularly difficult tactic to pull off off a ball as heavy as Alcaraz’s.
Sets 2 & 3
The Turning Point
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that, historically, when something odd has happened in one of Murray’s matches, it’s usually memorable because it’s been a negative turning point in the match.
I joked that Murray’s underarm serve in this match was one of the few instances where something odd has happened that has led to a positive turning point.
…Apologies for the language, I’ve clearly been watching too much of Andy recently.
This was obviously more funny than anything else but it is still interesting a tactically astute decision led to a more tactically astute Murray on the whole. It’s also a clear indication Murray was constantly trying to problem solve, to find a way to squeeze ahead in a very tight match.
Anyway, here’s where Murray excelled following the underarm serve.
Heavy to the forehand and staying patient
Murray started by maintaining the backhand exchanges for longer, not tapping out of them as early as he had in the first set. Alcaraz’s forehand frequency dropped from 56% in the first set to 42% in the second set, plus the number of drop shots Murray was playing reduced greatly, opting for longer cross-court rallies.
When Murray did go to the forehand, it was only when the opportunity presented itself and he made sure to go in with a lot of spin to push Alcaraz behind the baseline and/or force him to hit a high ball, which he is less comfortable attacking than a hip-height ball.
As Murray made Alcaraz more and more uncomfortable off of his forehand wing by keeping him deep in the court or locking him in a backhand cross-court exchange, the shot started to unravel.
The dynamic of the match subtly started to shift in Murray’s favour, Alcaraz feeling more pressure to attack from positions he’d rather not attack from, wary that free points were in short supply.
As the match wore on, Alcaraz started to crumble, perhaps worn out from carrying a slight injury. Either way, Murray deserved to run away with proceedings, closing out the match out with a sumptuous serve and volley.
Why is this win significant?
I’d argue this win is the most significant of his comeback so far.
Big words?
Let me back myself up.
First and foremost, Alcaraz is a fantastic player.
He matches his exceptional power with sublime drop shots - what he lacks in serving power, he makes up for with strength, movement, grit and finesse. Though he is ranked #38 in the world, some Elo Ratings1 have him ranked as high as #12 - there is a very strong argument to be made that Alcaraz is the highest quality player Murray has beaten all year, in conditions that suit the Spaniard more so than the Scot.
Second, Murray hasn’t won many matches from a set down recently - he’d lost seven of his last eight matches from this position, with a win over Ugo Humbert in Metz his saving grace.
The ability to fight back from a losing position is a staple of Murray’s old-school game but we have very rarely seen it since his comeback began. Take a look at how the momentum in some of his recent matches has stayed stagnant, where physical fatigue hasn’t been a factor:
Vs Casper Ruud in San Diego, loss 7-5 6-4 (first meeting). Ruud started slowly but once he got his serve his working, Murray failed to make an impact on return. From 1-3 down, Ruud lost three points on serve in the first set whilst Murray only won half of his service points. Things continued in this vein as Ruud went a break up - Murray started to work out a game plan to attack the Ruud serve but was still vulnerable on his own service games, winning less than half of his service points in the second set.
Signs of Murray being able to problem solve but very messy on serve with a game plan that lacked commitment (a lot of poor approaches + inability to shorten the point).
Vs Humbert in Metz, win 4-6 6-3 6-2 (second meeting). Murray won this match but he wasn’t forced to figure things out on the fly. Murray won 68% of his service points to Humbert’s 61% in the first set but couldn’t convert on a few crucial opportunities - the second set went a similar way in terms of percentages, the only difference being Murray capitalised in the important moments. In the third, Humbert fell away a bit, winning only 50% of his service points.
Stubborn from Murray - even though he was a set down, he’d had a winning game plan from the start of the match.
Vs Hurkacz in Cincinnati, loss 7-6 (4) 6-3 (first meeting), and vs Hurkacz in Metz, loss 7-6 (4) 6-3 (second meeting). Though the scorelines were exactly the same, the second time Murray met Hurkacz, he was able to win a lot more points on serve than he had in Cincinnati. Considering Hurkacz's level was also higher in Metz, this could be an indication Murray is starting to feel more comfortable the more times he plays new opponents, remaining more patient in rallies against Hurkacz in their second meeting.
Murray’s problem solving mind whirred playing the same opponent twice but, after failing to win the first set, in this case he was unable to shift the flow of momentum.
The match against Alcaraz was different from all of the above examples.
After moving ahead 3-0 0-40, Alcaraz awakened, winning 59% of the points from then up until the underarm serve. As Murray started to alter his tactics post-underarm-serve, the momentum completely turned on its head, Murray winning 58% of the points from thereon out.
This sort of momentum shift has been missing over the last few months - given the quality of opponent and the determination to change the dynamic of the match, this was arguably as close to vintage Andy Murray as we’ve seen all year.
Murray’s matchplay muscles are being strengthened win by win, his ability to work out and outsmart a new opponent in conditions that didn’t suit him surely evidence of this.
Most vintage of all though, the performance was gritty - Murray didn’t play his best but he found a way, clearly having no problems physically, able to focus entirely on finding a way to win the match.
“There’s nothing that’s happened recently, barring the Shapovalov match that I played at Wimbledon where I got absolutely smoked, to make me doubt that, that I can still win [matches versus the best players in the world]… I just don’t see any reason for why I can’t still compete against the top players and beat them in big events… I’m slowly starting to get there again and get to a level where it wouldn’t surprise me if I won a tournament again.”
His decision making is getting sharper, his problem-solving abilities are returning and, best of all, the belief is coming back.
Though he went on to lose to Alexander Zverev in the next round, Murray’s concise post-match tweet said it all.
The bitter disappointment suggests Murray believes he can win against anybody - and why not after defeating one of the best up-and-coming players in the world in challenging conditions from a losing position?
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Unlike the official rankings, Elo ratings give credit for who you play, not the round or tournament in which you play them. Though #12 is potentially a little inflated due to his run at the US Open, Elo ratings are still a better indication of Alcaraz’s form than his ranking, which ordinarily would take into account results from up to 52 weeks ago - during the rankings freeze, this is further exacerbated as points earned from up to three years ago can still be included!