How Daniil Medvedev beat Novak Djokovic at the 2021 US Open
An analysis of Daniil Medvedev's denial of Novak Djokovic's Calendar Slam bid in the US Open final including a dive into how their previous meetings primed them for this match.
Last Sunday, Daniil Medvedev defeated Novak Djokovic in the US Open… in straight sets. Some predicted the win but few could have foreseen just how one-sided the final would be for Medvedev.
Having won in Australia, France and London, Novak was one win away from achieving the historic Calendar Slam. The pressure finally overwhelmed Djokovic who was far from his usual immaculate standards.
Still, Medvedev had to defeat the man in front of him, the man on a 27-match win-streak at Grand Slams, the man who was treating this match like it was the last of his career…
Consequently, there was still a lot going on in this match!
Let me break it down for you.
The Rich History of Medvedev vs Djokovic
This match-up is so intriguing for a guy who mainlines stats 24/71.
Medvedev explained why each meeting between these two players gets very tactically heavy.
“We always talk tactics with my coach the day before, usually it takes five, ten minutes, some small things… When it’s against Novak, it took like probably 30 minutes. Why? Because we played already like seven matches before this one and every match was different just because he’s so good, he changes his tactics, he changes his approach.”
Though Djokovic was arguably not at his best, both players came into the match with clear plans, drawing on a wealth of experience from eight2 diverse matches. Medvedev was also well aware of Djokovic’s versatility and had to have several plans prepared accordingly.
Here’s what either player learnt (or failed to learn) from their previous meetings in the US Open final.
Australian Open 2021 and ATP Finals 2020: Medvedev Redirects His Forehand
The 2021 Australian Open final - the most recent match the two played and without a doubt the most important. Medvedev got thumped - the beauty of suffering a straight sets beating at the hands of Novak, however, is that you can learn a lot from the match.
The backhand to backhand exchanges between the two players slightly favoured Medvedev in Australia (as they have the past couple of years) - as a result, Djokovic targeted the forehand throughout the match. Medvedev’s defensive forehand unravelled as the match wore on as he struggled to respond with a non-attackable ball.
In New York, Medvedev was able to prevent the same patterns of plays from repeating. There were two ways he was able to achieve this.
Forehand direction on a neutral ball: Given some time on the ball i.e. a neutral ball, Medvedev primarily targeted Djokovic’s backhand. This sounds like a riskier shot but Medvedev didn’t flirt with the sidelines - he primarily went closer to the middle of court, goading Djokovic into going back cross-court (the safest response), straight into Medvedev’s wheelhouse where there was very little likelihood of him missing.
The strategy was similar on the backhand - Medvedev wanted to give Novak very few angles to work with.
The reason I’ve alluded to the ATP Finals match in 2020 in the title? Medvedev directed 35% of his shots down the middle of the court, more than he has in any other match between the two3. The US Open final and the ATP Finals match remain the only two matches between the pair where Djokovic had more unforced errors than he did winners/forced errors from Medvedev from the baseline and this was part of the reason why - deep, unassailable balls to safe targets in the court.
Defensive forehand execution: When Medvedev had his back against the wall, he went cross-court with his forehand. No change from their previous meetings in terms of the direction but in terms of execution, boy, did it look different from Australia.
Though it’s slightly speculative, Medvedev’s on-the-run forehand looked leagues better than in the Big Apple than it did Down Under, perhaps having worked hard on that shot in the interim with his coach, Gilles Cervara. Previously, Medvedev’s counterpunching abilities hitting a defensive forehand were slightly lacklustre, often leaving the line exposed for an easy put-away. In the US Open final, Medvedev was explosive from this corner.
With the backhand covered, these two factors made Medvedev a nightmare to play from the baseline as he successfully balanced aggression and defence from his forehand wing. Cervara was clearly ready for long, long rallies, stating Daniil was ready to play for “10 hours” if necessary.
Take this next stat with a pinch of salt as Djokovic was definitely affected by pressure to some degree but the world #1 hit six clean groundstroke winners during the match. That’s surely testament to Medvedev’s ability to grind successfully and intelligently.
Cincinnati Masters 2019: No Rhythm For Novak
On his way to his first Masters title in Cincinnati in 2019, Medvedev defeated Djokovic in a tight three-setter.
Djokovic had been getting the best of Medvedev in most of their baseline exchanges so the 6’6”-er changed tac by trading in his second serve for a second first serve. Given Medvedev had only been winning 35% of his second serves up until 3-3 in the second set in Cincinnati, the trade-off ended up being worth it, improving his second serve points won to 42% by the end of the match.
Interestingly, Medvedev actually tinkered with this tactic down a set and a break in Australia but didn’t really commit one way or the other after hitting a few double faults.
Rather than reacting as he did in Cincinnati and Australia, in the US, Medvedev had every intention of going big on the second serve from the start of the match.
“I had a lot of pressure too about the risk on the second serve, it was cause of the confidence I had. I knew I cannot give him easy serves cause that’s what he likes so that was a plan and because of the confidence in a lot of tight moments, I managed to do it well.”
Doing a little maths on the numbers, it makes total sense to go for this tactic! Take the match in Australia as an example (sorry if you don’t like numbers!).
Of his 49 first serve points, Medvedev won 34 points (69.4%); of his 28 second service points, Medvedev won nine (32.1%). Medvedev landed 49 of 77 first serves, equivalent to 63.6% first serves in.
Let’s imagine Medvedev replicated his first serve for all 28 of his second serves. We first assume he double faults 10 times, equivalent to 34.4% of these points (100%-63.6%, his first serve in rate). Of the remaining 18 points, Medvedev wins 69.4% (his first serve win rate), equivalent to 12 of 28 points won.
Even double faulting 10 times, against a Novak at the peak of his powers, that’s already a three point improvement on Medvedev’s performance in Australia.
Whether or not Medvedev went this Megamind is unclear but he obviously recognised how well Djokovic is able to take advantage of slow second serves.
Numbers aside, the most important takeaway from what Medvedev said in his press conference is the “confidence”. Medvedev was confident he could make big second serves from the get-go, clearly having worked on this tactic prior to the match.
Of course, Medvedev took on some risk, double faulting on his first two match points.
Overall, however, it all worked fantastically well in giving Djokovic no rhythm whatsoever and was definitely a winning tactic - Medvedev finished the match with 58% of his second serve points won4.
ATP Cup 2020: Failing From The Baseline?
With his legs frozen and no way past Wall-vedev, Djokovic had to look elsewhere.
At the beginning of 2020, Djokovic defeated Medvedev in an epic three-setter at the ATP Cup. Take a look at how often Djokovic came forward in that match compared to his other matches.
Djokovic came to the net in approximately one of every five points at the ATP Cup. After winning the first set comfortably in Melbourne, things were very even from the baseline - Djokovic was able to find the extra step required in that match by coming forward, winning 78% of his net points.
As you can see from the last row, Djokovic’s net point frequency was at its highest at the US Open, equivalent to one in four points.
Of course, the ATP Cup match was a little different from this match - Djokovic’s high frequency coming forward at the US Open was likely not his Plan A.
Still, it was far from desperate. Djokovic’s legs weren’t as springy as usual and, as a result, both his first and second serves suffered a 3mph dip in average speed from his tournament average - nonetheless, Djokovic attempted a serve and volley 20 times and was successful in 18 of them.
Overall, Djokovic still managed to graft himself a 66% success rate at the net.
Had Djokovic been in the same position five years ago with nerves stiffening him up, I honestly don’t think he’d have had the net capabilities to enact this sort of back-up plan and the scoreline could have been even uglier.
Hats off to Djokovic but that’s all it was in the end - a method of preventing Medvedev from winning more handily rather than a strategy that turned the tide of the match. Medvedev still did a very good job of punishing slow second serves5 from Djokovic and finding the odd pass when it mattered.
Daniil Medvedev: 2021 US Open Champion
Though Djokovic was definitely sub-par in this final for completely understandable reasons, Medvedev did well to carry out his game plan which seemed pretty concrete from the first point.
Taming Novak from the baseline?
Check.
Keeping Novak subdued on return?
Check.
Maintaining a cool head in the face of Novak’s net-rushing?
Check.
Even if Djokovic had been at his usual unwavering mental peak, Medvedev would have given the world #1 a ton of trouble carrying out his strategy.
Silver linings for Djokovic - he didn’t win the Calendar Slam but he did win the hearts of New York.
“The emotion, the energy was so strong… It’s as strong as winning 21 Grand Slams. That’s how I felt, honestly, I felt very, very special. It touched my heart, honestly.”
Aw shucks, ain’t that sweet?
Sorry - seriously, it was genuinely nice to see Djokovic being lauded by the crowd after years of playing the villain on Arthur Ashe.
Oh, and obviously Novak won the other three Slams this year so he can rest fairly easy.
No need for silver linings for Medvedev - his maiden Slam was a matter of when, not if, and he’ll be an exceptionally formidable force at hard-court Slams to come. The octopus only dropped one set during the tournament (to Botic Van De Zandschulp of all people!) - if that’s not an indication of confidence at the highest level, then what is?
Medvedev to reach #1 by July next year???
See you next time x
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Almost Daniil!
Since it’s a common theme throughout all of their matches rather than one specifically, I thought I’d include this bonus stat in the footnotes. Medvedev also directed his returns down the middle of the court, looking to neutralise rather than attack, giving Novak little to work with on his + 1 shot (Djokovic also employs a very similar strategy in his return style). Medvedev’s success in doing so was part of the reason Novak started to come forward (which we’ll get onto!).
Medvedev didn’t serve big every second serve but it was a tactic he employed for most of the first set at least - he won 63% of his second serves in this set. His average second serve speed increased from a tournament average of 92mph to 99mph in the final.
One more bonus point for the keenest among you. In their previous meetings (and in general), Djokovic normally directs his second serve down the T in the ad court with plenty of slice and decent placement. This serve made few appearances, however - whether it was confidence or mental fog, Djokovic’s second serve made very little impact on the match… He certainly wouldn’t have been serving and volleying behind it.