How Ash Barty won Wimbledon
A couple of analyses covering Ash Barty's semifinal victory over 2018 Wimbledon champ, Angelique Kerber, and her final win over former world #1, Karolina Pliskova.
Ash Barty is the 2021 Wimbledon champion!
Barty defeated Karolina Pliskova in the final to win her fourth title of the year (nobody else on the tour has won three), improve her record against top-20 players in 2021 to 12-1 and generally prove herself a worthy holder of the world #1 ranking.
In the process, Barty achieved her childhood dream of winning at the All-England Club, went one step further than her Junior Wimbledon win 10 years ago and won on the 50th anniversary of her hero, Evonne Goolagong’s, first win at Wimbledon.
She’ll be feeling immensely proud and rightly so as her final two matches were no cakewalk. This article analyses both matches:
Barty’s semifinal victory over 2018 Wimbledon champ, Angelique Kerber.
Barty’s final win over former world #1, Karolina Pliskova.
Let’s get stuck in!
Wimbledon Semifinal: Ash Barty defeats Angelique Kerber 6-3 7-6 (3)
At the start of the tournament, I’d written off Kerber’s chances.
Though she’d won the title in Bad Homburg the previous week to Wimbledon starting, Kerber had been in relatively poor form before that. Since Indian Wells in 20191, she hadn’t won more than three matches in a row and her record against top-20 opponents in completed matches was 1-8 in that time.
Serves me right for not paying too much attention to Bad Homburg - Kerber emphatically proved me wrong at SW19 and showed form reminiscent of 2016.
Barty had to play very well to get the win against her in their semifinal.
Here’s a bit more detail…
Barty’s First Serve Master Class
Kerber is good at a lot of things but two attributes of her’s in particular meant Barty couldn’t afford to have an off day on serve.
Kerber’s returns: Kerber possesses a solid return game on both wings and repeatedly punished slow second serves from Barty when given the opportunity.
Whilst Kerber kept her second serve away from Barty’s forehand at all costs, Barty split her second serve direction between forehand and backhand in an effort to keep Kerber off-balance. Sometimes it worked but most of the time, Kerber kept the pressure on, winning the majority of Barty’s second serve points.
Kerber’s success in longer rallies: Barty knew she had to keep her service points short and sweet if she was going to win - Kerber isn’t afraid to build a point and narrowly won the majority of the points that went over five shots, 29-27, as a result.
Obviously Barty is pretty used to winning short service points but against Kerber, she executed to an incredibly high level, particularly on her first serve.
Kerber’s average returns made percentage for the tournament was 84%. Against Barty, this was cut to 72%.
Barty finished 57% of her first serve points in one or two shots. Against Tomljanovic, who she beat convincingly 6-3 6-1, she only managed 39%. As you might have guessed, this isn’t easy to do consistently against Kerber.
Had she met a returner of Kerber’s calibre earlier in the tournament, with the courts yet to be worn in and therefore slowed down, it could have been a lot tougher.
Barty was able to take advantage of the quicker conditions, however, frequently looking for her forehand after a big first serve - she dropped only five first serve points as a result of precise execution.
That’s impressive, even by the Awesome Aussie’s standards.
Kerber’s Resistance
Kerber and Barty’s head-to-head sat at two apiece before this match.
Why had Barty struggled against the German in the past?
Well, Kerber is able to trouble a few of Barty’s weapons.
Slice: Normally so effective on grass, Kerber won the majority of the points that included a Barty slice. Her height (5,7’) and her comfortability in getting very low in the court make it easieir for Kerber to deal with Barty’s wicked slice2.
In an effort to curb Kerber’s slice prowess, Barty directed 34% of her slices to the deuce court corner, targeting her backhand (her average is around 8%, she ordinarily prefers to direct her slice cross court).
Though Barty did well to limit her slice points lost to 40%, it was her worst slice win-rate against any opponent during the tournament.
Forehand: Barty is normally able to control a neutral rally with her forehand, particularly her cross-court forehand. She is able to get enough whip on the ball that it bounces away from her opponent’s forehand, a difficult shot to defend especially when Barty rushes to the net off the back of it.
Against Kerber, this tactic was harder to execute. The cross-court forehand goes directly into Kerber’s sturdy backhand, making it harder to get up in the rally. Of Barty’s last four opponents, she won the lowest percentage of neutral rally points3 that included a forehand against Kerber.
Of her final four opponents, Kerber was definitely the hardest to beat from the back of the court. She still won the majority of her forehand points but it was only because her forehand was on fire.
Barty was still looking for the cross-court forehand but the level of execution had to be very high to beat Kerber outright…
Despite Kerber’s best efforts, however, Barty did indeed execute her forehand to a very high level.
Over and over and over.
Barty’s Best Level?
Barty knew she’d have to bring her best against Kerber and she absolutely delivered. She struck the forehand immensely well, served nearly to perfection and adjusted and/or covered her backhand sufficiently.
Kerber will be scratching her head wondering what she could have done better.
If you think this is all a little hyperbolic, Barty, who isn’t one to brag and speaks candidly, said it herself:
“That match was a great level, the best level I’ve played in quite some time, Angie’s an incredible competitor and she brought out the best in me today.”
Barty played one of the matches of her life when it mattered most.
If you’ve ever questioned Barty’s position at the top of the rankings, give this match a watch!
Wimbledon Final: Ash Barty defeats Karolina Pliskova 6-3 6-7 (4) 6-3
Another person I had little faith in before the tournament started, Karolina Pliskova was having by far the best Wimbledon of her career going into the final.
Just like Barty, Pliskova had won her semifinal against Aryna Sabalenka reaching a level of tennis I’d never seen from her before. She’d lost the first set after failing to convert eight break point opportunities (Sabalenka converted her first) but played on completely unruffled, winning a tight three-setter with some massive serving4.
Pliskova was on a roll!
… Yet, somehow, Barty stood strong, prevailing in three sets.
How did Barty improve her head-to-head to 6-2 against the Czech giant?
Nervous start for Pliskova
Okay, first off, we’ll quickly address Pliskova’s dire start to the match.
She was clearly nervous, her first serve speed was way down (her first first serve of the match was 84mph) and she lost the first 14 points of the match.
Pliskova dug deep, however, and began to find some rhythm, avoiding a repeat of her nightmare Rome final. From about 5-1 down, the match became far more competitive.
It’s not a very interesting analytical point but it can’t really be overlooked - nerves dug a hole for her in the first set that she couldn’t get out of.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the more strategic (and interesting) reasons behind Barty’s win.
Chip ‘n’ Slice
In almost the polar opposite fashion to Kerber, Pliskova was often undone by the powers of the Barty slice.
Pliskova is one tall lass and getting those low slices up and down isn’t the easiest job in the world for her.
Barty knew this would be exacerbated on the grass, where the ball stays particularly low, so accordingly sliced like there was no tomorrow. Take a look at how often she hit a slice compared to a topspin backhand in comparison to previous meetings between the two players.
The proof of the slice’s success is in the stats. Not only did Barty play the slice more often, she won a higher percentage of points using her slice against Pliskova than she had against any of her previous opponents.
Barty also exploited Pliskova’s height with the chip return.
Barty had one goal when returning Pliskova’s serve:
“It was a focus of ours today was to try and take Karolina’s biggest weapon, her serve, away from her as often as we could and that meant making a lot of returns, trying to put pressure on her in a sense of not allowing her to get cheap points.”
No huge return winners, nothing fancy or outlandish, just getting the ball back into play with some good ol’ fashioned chip returns.
Ordinarily, Barty returns on her forehand wing using topspin rather than chips but against Pliskova, she returned her forehand by chipping it most of the time.
In the past, Barty had went for more on return against Pliskova, sometimes resulting in patchy return streaks. In this match, her strategy was far less risky - though Pliskova hit her spots in the second set, in the third, with everything on the line5, Barty missed one return.
Pliskova noticed Barty’s consistent ability to pressurise her:
“We played a couple and I always thought she was a bit on and off and this time I thought she was never really off.”
Neutralise the serve.
Make Pliskova play off a low-bouncing return.
Job’s a good‘un.
Pliskova’s Resistance
We’ll cover the obvious first.
In the final two sets, Pliskova put on a serving clinic. She hit a very high number of first serves in (77%) and won a very high percentage of these first serve points (75%). She sometimes hit her second serve close to the same speed as her first serve to avoid an extended rally, which Barty was winning the vast majority of.
Though Ash did unpick the second serve with the chip return, Pliskova’s willingness to go risky on this shot suggests how big she was going on her serve (with little success to be fair).
The other shot that led Pliskova’s fightback was her forehand return.
Where Pliskova had started off nervily, she held her nerve as the match wore on, finding her range on return and coming up clutch in very important moments using the forehand.
She found it easier to tee off on first serves which is why Barty won her lowest percentage of first serve points during the tournament (66.7%).
Notice a correlation between the two shots leading Pliskova’s resistance?
Pliskova won the majority of the 0-4 shot rallies throughout the match as she hammered serves and returns passed Barty, who could only ride out the storm at times.
Barty continued to ask the question, however, chipping away at Pliskova’s serves and never doubting her own serve for a second, even if she had to watch a few of Pliskova’s returns take chunks out the paint.
Patience and consistency prevailed.
Barty’s Next Level?
Karolina Pliskova played well considering her rocky start and could have caused Barty more trouble had she been able to sustain her level. It was too much to ask though and the soaring peaks were met with some dodgy lows (see the volley above!).
On the other hand, Barty brought her own high level into the match and was able to sustain it for long enough, playing a safer game by her standards that eventually reaped its rewards.
What’s next for the Barty party?
A first hard court Slam perhaps? I’ve never seen her play as well in the past as she has this Wimbledon - if she can keep it up and continue to play intelligent tennis, I make her the favourite for the US Open6.
Bold statement?
Maybe!
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Exclamation mark!
The last edition of Indian Wells to take place… *sheds a tear*
Carla Suarez Navarro had an even better record than Kerber against Barty’s slice in the first round - she’s unsurprisingly 5,3’ tall!
In other words, all points including a Barty forehand except her serve + forehand points to weed out forehands the other player likely didn’t have much control over.
Pliskova and Sabalenka broke the record for the most aces served by two women in a Wimbledon singles match with 32 aces!
Hey, that’s me!
Provided Naomi Osaka is still on hiatus.