How Novak Djokovic won Wimbledon for a sixth time
A couple of analyses of Djokovic's semifinal victory over Denis Shapovalov and his final win against Matteo Berrettini.
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Wimbledon #6 for Novak Djokovic.
After Rod Laver, the second man in the Open Era to win the first three Grand Slams of the year.
His first Channel Slam1.
Love him or hate him, the immortal icon’s ability to break records and Next-Gen spirits is undeniably impressive.
How did the world #1 make it 20-20-20 with Roger and Rafa? Today’s article analyses Djokovic’s final two matches at SW19, arguably his most difficult of the tournament.
Djokovic’s semifinal victory over a heartbroken Denis Shapovalov.
Djokovic’s final win over Grand Slam final debutant, Matteo Berrettini.
Enjoy!
Wimbledon Semifinal: Novak Djokovic defeats Denis Shapovalov 7-6 (3) 7-5 7-5
This one will sting for a while.
Denis Shapovalov may have fallen in straight sets to Novak Djokovic but… well, Djokovic put it plainly in his press conference.
“Today, [like our previous matches], three very tight sets, he was the better player for the first couple of sets.”
Though Djokovic now owns a 7-0 head-to-head against the Canadian, he has experienced the leaps and bounds Shapovalov has made to his game first-hand. Their first four meetings went fairly comfortably for Novak, all coming in 2019, however, their last two meetings at the 2020 and 2021 ATP Cup have both been far closer affairs.
Their semifinal meeting at Wimbledon was no different.
Here are some of the reasons why Shapovalov was able to trouble Novak once more.
Shapovalov’s serve gets Djokovic chipping
At Wimbledon, Djokovic has historically favoured the topspin return over the chip or slice return and will more often than not avoid playing it if he can.
Just take a look at the frequency of his topspin returns to chip returns against some of his previous big-serving opponents compared to some of his not so big-serving opponents at Wimbledon.
So far so good, the best returner of all time prefers a topspin return to a chip return on grass.
Against Shapovalov, however, Djokovic was forced to hit a chip return 33% of the time and, for the first two sets, this number was at 42%! For relativity’s sake, Federer chip returned 41% of the time against Djokovic in their 2019 final, Federer’s chip return on grass potentially being the best in the game.
It’s all good though, Djokovic’s chip return is pretty good too, right?
Eh… Whilst Shapovalov won 65% of his service points where Djokovic hit a topspin return, he won a juicy 80% where Djokovic was forced to chip return.
How did Shapo send Djokovic to the chip shop I hear you ask (or words to that effect)?
Shapovalov was able to surprise Novak with his first serve down the T in the advantage court. He has previously naturally favoured his wide-swinging lefty serve from the ad position, serving down the T on his first serve in the ad court less than 39% of the time in all of their last three meetings.
At Wimbledon, Shapovalov was able to throw Djokovic for a loop with his serve to his forehand, hitting his first serve down the T in the ad court more than 53% of the time, and, more importantly, losing just three of the 20 first and second serve points in this direction. With Djokovic unable to adjust immediately, he had less time to get those returns back into play, chipping the ball and giving some easy putaways.
Those three points he lost though? Two of them were absolutely crucial.
A winning strategy for Shapovalov certainly but Djokovic was able to ignore the percentages in the nick of time in the first two sets.
Djokovic finally adapted in the third set, reading the serve better and consequently hitting a chip return half as frequently as he was in the first two, increasing his return of serve and overall return points won percentages in the process2.
Still, the performance left the great man applauding his opponent’s serve.
”With a lefty serve that he’s got, he can hit any spot, it’s one of the best serves on the tour.”
Shapovalov’s backhand return
When your opponent’s returns are unreliable, there’s no need to pick a side on second serve.
At the Paris Masters final in 2019, their highest profile match besides this one, Shapovalov won 18% of Djokovic’s service points. He failed to win a point in 0-4 shots on second serve, essentially putting zero pressure on the shot. As a result, Djokovic directed his second serve to Shapo’s backhand around 50% of the time.
In their last two meetings, the forehand return markedly improved and Djokovic’s service direction followed suit. The backhand return was still to catch up, however, with Djokovic winning a healthy 73% of his second serve points in their last two ATP Cup matches directed to this wing.
After this match, I can truly say Shapovalov has the potential to pressurise Djokovic’s second serve consistently. The second serve continued to go to the backhand but Djokovic’s win percentage slipped to 50% in the first set because of points like these.
Notice I’ve stressed potential and notice I’ve said it was his only break of the match, however.
Furthermore, Djokovic adjusted. He began to mix up his second serve direction3, sometimes going heavy into the body of Shapovalov or catching him off guard with a second serve to the forehand. Shapovalov began to rip his backhand return less often, perhaps discouraged by the possibility of the serve going elsewhere.
In the first two sets, Shapovalov won 12 points either immediately off of his return or on the following shot… In the third set, Shapovalov won only two points in the same fashion.
His backhand return is better but it’s still not quite at the level necessary to beat Djokovic.
A rivalry to get excited about?
I know I focused more on the things that made this match incredibly close rather than the things that gave Novak the victory… but who can blame me?
This match was enthralling and exciting because it was so close. Every time Shapovalov meets Djokovic, he’s getting closer and closer and on this occasion, he gave him more than his fair share of a scare4.
It really boiled down to two things.
Experience. As Novak put it himself:
“In important moments, I think I held my nerves better than he did.”
Adaptability. Djokovic adjusted his serve to cope with Shapovalov’s huge returns and started to read Shapovalov’s serve, giving him more time on his own returns.
I’m looking forward to the next instalment of Djokovalov with bated breath!
Wimbledon Final: Novak Djokovic defeats Matteo Berrettini 6-7 (4) 6-4 6-4 6-3
Fresh off his win at Queen’s Club Championships, Matteo “The Hammer”5 Berrettini battered his way through half of the draw, dropping two sets in the process to meet Novak Djokovic in his first Grand Slam final.
The final many would have expected? In hindsight, probably, though nobody would blame you for expecting to see Roger. The great Swiss’s absence needn’t have mattered though as Berrettini kept the crowd entertained for three and a half hours in a valiant effort against Djokovic.
Despite winning the first set, however, the 25-year-old did inevitably fall in four closely contested set.
Here are a couple of the most important factors to Djokovic winning his 21st consecutive match on grass.
Berrettini’s lack of second serve direction and rolling the dice
Okay, so see how I was talking about the whole chip serve thing in the Shapovalov section?
One way to increase the chance of Djokovic potentially taking a cut at your second serve is to serve directly to his body. Shapovalov’s second serve was directed to Djokovic’s body 57% of the time, decreasing the amount of meaningful returns Djokovic was able to make in the first two sets.
Berrettini served to Djokovic’s body 84%6 of the time on second serve.
Though Djokovic lost the first set, the signs were there from the start. Djokovic could put enough weight behind Berrettini’s body second serve to prevent the Italian from getting a strong +17 shot into play, or even a strong +2 shot - as a result, Berrettini won only 16% of his second serve points using a second serve +1 or second serve +2 throughout the match.
On other second serves, Berrettini sometimes went off the other end of the spectrum - instead of placing the serve, Berrettini rolled the dice in pressure moments, adding pure power, looking to win the point in one shot off his racket rather than two.
It paid off in the first set - at 5-2 down, he held after a 22-minute game, forcing a Djokovic return error on a couple of second serve points in this game alone and putting together this ginormous point.
Neither of these plays are sustainable strategies, however, and the games where Berrettini was subsequently broken suffered because of these two problems.
0-0 in the second set: Berrettini goes for too much on the backhand after a body second serve is easily neutralised by Novak at 40-40.
2-0 in the second set: Berrettini double faults going for too much and misses a regulation slice after another second serve to the body is neutralised at 40-40.
1-1 in the third set: Double fault and a missed forehand on Berrettini’s +2 shot after his second serve.
3-3 in the fourth set: Exactly the same as the above with the double fault coming on break point.
5-3 in the fourth set: Three second serve +1 or +2 unforced errors.
Look, no question, Berrettini has an amazing first serve. Djokovic was left scratching his head at times with 45% of them going unreturned and a further 14% of them being cleaned up by Berrettini on the +1 shot.
But you’re only as good as your second serve said someone or other.
Without a consistently well placed second serve8, the power of Berrettini’s forehand and the occasional super-Saiyan second serve alone proved too risky as Novak won 62% of Berrettini’s second serve points.
At the net on pressure points
So, whilst Berrettini was broken six times during the match, Djokovic was broken on just two occasions.
Berrettini created plenty of opportunities for himself but never seemed to be able to convert.
Djokovic black magic?
Not exactly.
On pressure points on Djokovic’s serve (0-30, 15-30, 30-30, 40-40 and any break points), the world #1 seemed to wind up at the net a lot.
Throughout the match, Djokovic approached the net on 17% of the total points played.
On pressure points, Djokovic approached the net 33% of the time.
This is about double his regular rate - if we exclude pressure points where he hit a clutch serve or double faulted, he approached the net on over half of his pressure points!
And why not?
Djokovic has historically had a better rate of success at the net than at the baseline during rallies at Wimbledon and this was also the case in his pressure points, winning 75% of them compared to 56% of his baseline pressure points.
It didn’t always work…
… but given he was winning far more points at the net than he was losing, it was a strategy Djokovic could rely on over the course of the match.
Excluding shots that didn’t go to a rally, Berrettini approached the net on only 23% of his pressure service points. Djokovic actually ended up approaching on more of Berrettini’s pressure service points than Berrettini did.
Djokovic the net player?
Not really.
Djokovic the pressure point net player?
Definitely.
Who can stop Djokovic?
Matteo Berrettini entertained us in the final. His serve was booming, he held his own confidently in many of the longer rallies, played clutch 100mph forehands on massive points and kept the match incredibly close at times.
Was it ever going to be enough to beat Djokovic, however?
The man is on a roll and it showed in the final. He was able to take advantage of Berrettini’s second serves and took the big points into his own hands by coming forward - he found a way to win his umpteenth best of five match of the season even though he wasn’t playing his absolute best tennis.
It’s Djokovic’s year so far and it’s difficult to see anybody stopping him from completing the calendar Grand Slam at the US Open.
Maybe Rafa will actually play this year?
Maybe Meddy will play better than he did in Australia?
Maybe an umpire will take a ball to the throat9?
For now, Djokovic’s reign continues…
Barty’s semifinal and final victory analyses pending!
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Exclamation mark!
Winning the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, one of the hardest feats in tennis. In the Open Era, Rod Laver (1969), Bjorn Borg (1978, 1979, 1980), Rafael Nadal (2008, 2010) and Roger Federer (2009) are the only men to have done it before him.
I didn’t want to overwhelm the main body with percentages but for those nerds interested in more…
Djokovic returns made in sets 1 and 2: 61%
Djokovic returns made in set 3: 77%
Djokovic returns points won in sets 1 and 2: 28%
Djokovic returns points won set 3: 39%
Djokovic second serves directed to Shapovalov’s backhand:
Set 1: 86%
Set 2: 67%
Set 3: 54%
Such a poet.
Nicknamed the Hammer because he works part-time as a carpenter.
Actually, that’s total nonsense, sorry.
Heck, at least it improved from his performance against Hurkacz. Berrettini directed the second serve down the middle of the court 94% of the time in this match but it went relatively unpunished.
For a little relativity, Djokovic served down the middle of the court 60% of the time.
A + 1 is the server’s second shot of the rally, their follow-up shot to the serve e.g. a forehand winner following a serve. A + 2 is the server’s third shot of the rally e.g. serve + forehand + forehand winner.
Berrettini overall second serve success rate: 24/63 = 38%
Berrettini non-body second serve success rate: 6/10 = 60%
There are no line judges at this year’s US Open.