Nadal wins the Rome Masters: Tournament Analysis
Rafa wins his tenth title at the Rome Masters, beating arch-rival Novak Djokovic in the final. I've analysed this match and his first match against Jannik Sinner.
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Rafael Nadal has beaten Novak Djokovic to win the Rome Masters.
This is his 10th trophy in the Italian capital, his fourth ‘La Decima’ at any given tournament, his 36th Masters title, now tying with Djokovic for the record, and the 62nd clay-court title of his career.
Not a particularly surprising result then?
Wrong!
To say Rafa had a rough time achieving this is an understatement. Rafa won 52.3% of the total points he played in Rome… Never, in his 88 singles titles runs, has he lost a lower percentage of the total points played1.
What made the tournament so tough for Rafa? What challenges did he face along the way?
I’ve analysed two of his matches2 to posit some answers.
Rafa’s round of 32 against Jannik Sinner.
Rafa’s final against Novak Djokovic.
Enjoy!
Rome Masters Round of 32: Rafael Nadal defeats Jannik Sinner 7-5 6-4
“Fuck. Off.”
Every Rafa fan in unison when the Rome Masters draw was released. Rafa’s second round (his first round) opponent was likely to be Jannik Sinner.
Jannik was the highest-ranked unseeded player in the draw and was probably the most formidable too. Rafans would probably have picked the majority of seeded players before letting The Fox loose on their beloved.
The match lived up to the billing and, though Rafa got through in straight sets, it was far from straightforward.
Discussion 1: Sinner’s Backhand
Sinner makes his opponents feel claustrophobic. With one of the biggest forehands and, more importantly, backhands in the game, nowhere on the court is safe.
Rafa was consistently looking for Sinner’s backhand throughout the match, ideally trying to find the ‘safer’ wing. Sinner’s ability to rev the ball like no other gives him a beautiful cross-court backhand that could take on the Nadal forehand frequently, happily going toe-to-toe with it.
… It worked to some degree. Sinner hit a clean backhand winner or forced an error 14 times, double the amount of Rafa’s backhand.
Sinner was fighting with Rafa’s forehand, however.
Discussion 2: The greatest clay-court forehand of all time
Nadal stuck to the backhand time and time again and was often able to redirect Sinner’s pace if there wasn’t enough of an angle on it. In the first set alone, Nadal forced an error or hit a winner with his forehand 18 times.
Sinner could often retaliate, however, forcing an error or hitting a winner 10 times with his backhand.
In the pressure moments however, Sinner’s backhand was left crumbling. In Sinner’s final service game of the first set, Rafa forced two errors from the young Italian’s backhand.
Two more points went begging as a result of Sinner backhand unforced errors and the first set was history.
Sinner played a ‘safer’ game in the second set. He sacrificed his ability to hit easy winners on either wing as a result, hitting only three clean groundstroke winners but minimised his errors, hitting 10 groundstroke unforced errors (16 in the first) and missing only one return throughout. Instead, Sinner hit controlled yet pacey, deep shots.
Rafa initially found it difficult to respond, hitting nine unforced errors in the first six games alone.
It was only a matter of time however, before Rafa’s forehand manufactured its own chances. Rafa hit four of his seven clean winners for the set in the two games where Sinner was broken.
Discussion 3: Sinner could have done with a better serve
It’s odd that I say this as Sinner’s serve won him more points than Nadal’s. Sinner hit the only ace of the match and he forced nine errors to Nadal’s five using his serve. He also used the serve +1 effectively, winning seven points in three shots on his serve to Nadal’s six. Even more impressive is its strength under pressure. Three of these nine forced errors were hit from break point down.
Yet, these are the serving stats.
Nadal doesn’t have the most accurate serve3 but he gets away with it by being the most formidable baseliner in the game.
Against most players, Sinner gets away with having a fairly inaccurate serve, too4.
But not against Nadal.
In this match-up, as it stands, Sinner could do with significantly outperforming Nadal in terms of his serve’s effectiveness. There’s latent potential - Sinner’s first serve was 11km/h faster than Nadal’s and he was able to force more errors, throughout and in the clutch moments. If he could hit his spots more consistently in their next battle, the fight would go down to the wire.
Conclusion: Sinner ain’t ready to beat Nadal
Sinner could beat Nadal one day5. He clearly has the belief, being brave enough to wrestle with Nadal’s forehand.
Unfortunately, Sinner showed his backhand wasn’t yet up to the task. Until his groundstrokes can out-Nadal Nadal (which could happen one day), Sinner should be looking to his serve for assistance - for now, it may be full of potential but there is still a lot of work to be done before it fulfils its promise.
Nadal stuck to his tactic of barraging the backhand in both sets, firing up his forehand whenever Sinner backed off and trusting in it to break the Italian’s serve. It was an exceptional performance from Jannik but it proved too much to handle for the future star.
There’s always next time… He’s certainly got the right attitude.
“We have to come together with my team and watch many, many times this match from today. Then we will see what we should have done better.”
Rome Masters Final: Rafael Nadal defeats Novak Djokovic 7-5 1-6 6-3
Rafa v Novak, Chapter 57.
Is there anything more comforting in our sport? The most prolific rivalry in tennis returns for a fifteenth consecutive year.
The rivalry had reached a bit of an impasse, however. Following his gubbing of Djokovic in last year’s French Open final, Rafa was on a four-match winning streak on clay against Djokovic, whilst Djokovic holds a nine-match winning streak on hard courts against Nadal.
Either player was beating the other comfortably on their favourite surface.
With this in mind, though Djokovic lost to Nadal, there were encouraging signs of life in their seemingly immortal rivalry.
Djokovic kept Rafa feeling far from comfortable.
Discussion 1: Djokovic’s groundstroke resistance
A few key ingredients made this match far closer than their last.
In Paris last year, Nadal hit high to the Djokovic backhand, forcing Djokovic to eventually tap out by going down the line or attempting a drop shot, both of which had little effect on an inspired Rafa.
In Rome, however, this pattern of play was few and far between. Djokovic’s backhand was up to the task - he used it less frequently, using it as a weapon rather than as a white flag.
Rafa’s backhand was, conversely, not as capable. Rafa finished the point with his backhand cross-court 27 times in Paris - in Rome, he could only finish the point eight times with this shot.
Additionally, Djokovic’s forehand has looked the best it has on a clay court for years, particularly cross-court. In Paris, Djokovic barely broke even in points including a Djokovic cross-court forehand (51%) - in Rome, he won the point 64% of the time.
Discussion 2: Djokovic’s tactical awareness
To make matters worse for Rafa, Djokovic’s tactics were on point.
Fans were groaning at his plop shot usage in Paris. He won exactly 50% of the points that included a drop shot, a strategy he’d brought into the match and stubbornly refused to change.
In Rome, Djokovic won 73% of his drop shot points and, more importantly, used this shot less frequently (7.9% of points in Rome to 12.5% in Paris). Where he’d previously looked desperate, Djokovic was far more clear-headed in this match, even using it to snuff out a set point.
An adjustment in the second set also showed how switched on Djokovic was in the final.
After their last meeting, perhaps Djokovic came into the match a little apprehensive of the Nadal backhand.
In the first set, he spread the court with his forehand, hitting away from Nadal rather than attacking a specific wing. In the second set, recognising Nadal’s backhand wasn’t at the same level as their previous meeting6, Djokovic let loose on this wing and took Nadal by surprise.
All of these factors allowed Djokovic to construct points and boss the extended rallies.
5+ shot rallies at French Open 2020: Nadal won one more rally than Djokovic, 53-52.
5+ shot rallies in Rome Masters 2021: Djokovic turned the tables Nadal, 52-44.
Using his clay-court weaponry, the longer the point went on, the more likely Djokovic was to win the point.
Discussion 3: Nadal keeps the point short
Unfortunately for Djokovic, Nadal significantly won the short point battle, handing him the win overall.
0-4 shot rallies at French Open 2020: Nadal obliterated Djokovic, 52-25.
0-4 shot rallies at Rome Masters 2021: closer, but still a fair gap in favour of Nadal, 58-42.
Nadal’s strategic foundation allowed him to keep the points short more so than in their previous meetings. 30.4% of the total points played were won by Nadal in 0-4 shots, the highest percentage in their last seven meetings, including three other meetings in Rome.
The serve +1 contributed to this, especially in the first set where he executed a serve +1 point on eight occasions (he would win 0 in the second set and 3 in the third set).
In the first set, Nadal erased three pressure points (15-30 and 30-30 at 3-4, 30-30 at 4-5) by playing a serve followed by a forehand. In all three, he served to Novak’s backhand.
Though Nadal is not as accurate a server as Djokovic, and though he served more predictably than Djokovic7, Nadal looking for the forehand after his serve was just too powerful, especially in important moments. Look at the point above - Djokovic desperately tries to keep it away from Nadal’s forehand, to no avail.
That’s nothing new really though, a tried and tested tactic that Nadal has used successfully for years.
Where Nadal really excelled was keeping the points short on return.
This proved important as Djokovic started to lock into his own return game in the second and third sets, extending the rallies frequently and pressurising Nadal’s serve.
Nadal needed to respond.
At 3-2 up in the deciding set, on Djokovic’s serve, Nadal refused to let the point extend. Not one point on Djokovic’s serve would go over 9 or more shots from thereon in, despite 10 of Djokovic’s 13 previous service games featuring at least one rally of this length.
Discussion 4: The whole picture
There was a bit of jumping about there (not my usual style!). I’ll bang out some chronological bullet points and fill in the blanks.
Djokovic was clearly in formidable form, drop shotting effectively, and dominating the extended rallies with some clay-court-suited groundstrokes. The set came down to a couple of points here and there but Nadal handled the pressure better than Novak, serve +1-ing as well as he ever has. For me, this reliable tactic made the biggest difference.
Djokovic recognised Nadal’s backhand was weaker than it had been in their previous meeting, redirecting his forehand to exploit it. He also began to return more effectively from his own backhand wing. This changed the dynamic of the match, with Djokovic sweeping the second set.
Djokovic held the momentum going into the third set. 10 of the points in the first five games went 9+ shots, with Djokovic winning 7 of them. Djokovic missed a vital shot 13 shots into a break point…
… and suddenly, the dynamic of the match flipped once more. The last four games would feature only two 9+ shot rallies, Nadal winning both. More importantly, Nadal kept the points short on return, pressurising Djokovic’s own serve +1 as best he could, crucially breaking Djokovic to love.
As the two gladiators went to shake hands, for a fleeting moment, there was a wry smile on Novak’s face. He may have lost but Djokovic had proved he could remain competitive on the terre battue against the King of Clay.
Djokovic might fancy his chances should they meet again at Roland Garros next month…
Rafael Nadal in Rome: Tournament Analysis
Any doubts the haters had before Rome started have been dispelled.
Rafa is undoubtedly the favourite to win the French Open for a 14th time8.
This may have been his least dominant title ever but this wasn’t all the fault of the Spaniard.
Okay, his backhand has lost a little bit of its bite.
Overall though, it was Rafa’s almighty competitors that made things tough for him this week. Sinner showed he has the potential to beat Nadal in the future; though he was missing from the analyses, Nadal obviously just scraped passed the Canadian; Zverev and Opelka could have gone a lot worse than they did; and Novak Djokovic definitely found a version of his clay-court game that can trade punches with Nadal once more.
Nonetheless, the King of Clay remains just that. Nadal ripped his forehand, either keeping the points short and sweet, as Nadal 2.0 does, or pinning his opponents into the backhand corner. Some clutch serving and stunning defence to get out of some sticky situations were the cherry on top.
And there you have it. Still a bit of work to be done on the backhand going into the French? Either way, Nadal will be the favourite whichever mood he’s in, showing this week more than ever that he still thrives off of adversity.
Looking forward to the French! I’ll ask Guy Forget to nail the lines in for you, big man!
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Rome Masters 2021 = 52.3% total points won
Madrid Masters 2005 = 52.5% TPW
Queens 2008 = 52.5% TPW
Stuttgart 2015 = 53.1% TPW
Canada Masters 2018 = 53.3% TPW
I know, I know… why only two matches? The article was droning on a bit so I’ve left it at two matches! And where’s Shapo?! Denis Shapovalov held two match points against Nadal and there were several other moments throughout the match where Nadal lived on a knife edge. I opted for Sinner’s match instead as A) it was far shorter and B) it was still very challenging, despite the scoreline. Shapo’s match would kinda deserve an article of its own… Craig O’Shannessy wrote a decent piece for the ATP website if you’re desperate for an analysis of that match!
I’ll stop bashing Nadal’s serve for a while here in the footnotes. Like Sinner’s, it can be very effective in high pressure moments, like at 4-4 in the first set. See my analysis of the Barcelona Open for further proof!
In 2021, Sinner ranked 8th for second serve points won amongst the world’s top 50. He also ranked 41st for first serve points won. The disparity both shows Sinner’s inability to use his serve effectively and his ability to back up the serve with his groundstrokes.
In fact, IMO Sinner is probably the favourite should they happen to meet outside of clay.
Nadal struck a winner or forced an error with his backhand three times to six unforced errors in the first set (he struck seven unforced errors throughout the entire match at the French Open).
Nadal served towards Djokovic’s backhand wing 64% of the time, Djokovic served towards Nadal’s backhand wing 53% of the time.
*giggles at the concept of winning a Slam 14 times*