Hubert Hurkacz wins the Miami Masters: Tournament Analysis
Hubert Hurkacz picked up his first Masters trophy in Miami this weekend. I've analysed his wins against his most formidable opponents to determine how Hurkacz surprised the tennis world.
Did anyone see this coming?
Hubert Hurkacz is a Masters 1000 champion in Miami.
Seemingly out of nowhere, Hubert Hurkacz pulled off a run of six consecutive matches, beating two top 20 opponents (Milos Raonic and Denis Shapovalov), two top 10 opponents (Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev) and delaying Jannik Sinner’s ascent to the pinnacle of men’s tennis for the time being1.
The world #37 started his Miami Masters with eight wins to five losses on the season. Four of those wins were during his title run at Delray Beach2 against players ranked outside of the top 100. Okay, he’d won a title in 2021, but with only two top 50 wins, it’s safe to say Hurkacz wasn’t in giant-slaying form.
The last time a man ranked outside of the top 30 won a Masters tournament was when Tomas Berdych won the 2005 Paris Masters.
Since Masters 1000s began in 2009, Hurkacz is the lowest-ranked player pick up a title.
The furthest Hurkacz had gone in a Masters tournament previous to last week was the quarterfinals of Indian Wells in 2019, where he lost to Roger Federer.
I could stat you all day long with this one - the point is, on paper, Hurkacz is a very surprising Miami Open titlist.
I’ll be analysing the endearing Pole’s victories over his most formidable opponents to determine how Hurkacz shocked the tennis world.
Miami Masters Quarterfinal: Hubert Hurkacz defeats Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-6 6-3 6-4
Hurkacz was 1-6 against second-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas going into his second Masters quarterfinal.
Hurkacz's more devoted fans knew he’d have his chances, however. In his last four losses to the Greek, Hurkacz had managed to take the match to a deciding set. Their previous matches had been close and this one was no different.
On serve, there was little in it. Hurkacz may have hit 15 aces to Tsitsipas’s 7, but he forced 7 errors with his serve to Tsitsipas’s 18. He made up for it by hitting one double fault to his opponent’s six. Hurkacz won 60.8% of his service points to Tsitsipas’s 60.4%. This stat alone is impressive as Tsitsipas is one of the game’s best at covering his serve.
From the baseline, the two couldn’t be separated. Hurkacz won one less rally that went five or more shots and hit one more groundstroke winner than Tsitsipas.
Though Hurkacz marginally outperformed Tsitsipas in execution, it was his mental fortitude that won him the match.
In Rotterdam, Hurkacz blinked first, missing a pass on match point that prompted him to throw his racket 15 feet into the air. In Miami, at 2-2, up 40-0, Tsitsipas’s service game unravelled as follows.
40-0: Tsitsipas double faults.
40-15: Tsitsipas attempts a drop shot off a short ball, nets it.
40-30: Hurkacz pulls off a stunning backhand pass down the line.
40-40: Tsitsipas hits a powerful serve out wide.
Ad-40: Tsitsipas puts too much sauce on the backhand down the line.
40-40: Hurkacz hits a backhand down the line followed by a decent forehand approach, prompts a missed backhand Tsitsi-pass.
40-Ad: Tsitsipas botches a forehand smash.
This game nicely encapsulates the match.
Hurkacz hit some stunning shots in the important moments, particularly that Murray-esque backhand down the line.
Tsitsipas shot himself in the foot a few too many times. This was the second game he lost from 40-0 up3.
Hurkacz wasn’t afraid to come into the net, at the right times. He made 28 approaches in Rotterdam and 21 approaches in Miami.
Hurkacz played every point the same as the last, Rafa-style. He’s not impervious to nerves, as we’ll get onto, but against Tsitsipas, his level of belief and determination allowed him to play freely and confidently.
Miami Masters Semifinal: Hubert Hurkacz defeats Andrey Rublev 6-3 6-4
Andrey Rublev had lost eight of his last 61 matches against lower-ranked opponents. Fortunately for Hurkacz, he was one of them.
The first and last meeting of Hubi v Rubi was at the Rome Masters in 2020. Though he lost three more points than Rublev on that occasion, he eked out a win. The two players hit the same amount of backhand unforced errors on the red dirt, but Hurkacz hit eight backhand winners to the Russian’s nil.
In Miami, it was Hurkacz’s ability to dominate Rublev on the forehand that set the two players apart. Hurkacz struck a forehand winner or forced an error using the forehand 23 times, whilst Rublev’s count was 21. Hurkacz was also able to hit 10 forehand unforced errors to Rublev’s 14. Hurkacz’s fine form on the forehand left Rublev’s second serves exposed, allowing him to win 15 of 24 second serve return points.
Over 50% of the points were won and lost on the forehand. Hurkacz was able to win the majority of these against the ATP’s forehand poster boy and reaped the rewards with a straight-sets win.
Hurkacz is often accused of being too passive. This match showcased his ability to outhit the most aggressive players in the world.
Miami Masters Final: Hubert Hurkacz defeats Jannik Sinner 7-6 (4) 6-4
In only his second appearance in a Masters 1000 tournament, Jannik Sinner demolished his way to his first Masters final. The stage was set for Sinner to become the youngest Masters titlist since Novak Djokovic won in Miami 14 years ago.
Hubert Hurkacz must have missed the memo.
Set 1 Hurkacz 7-6 (4): Throwing Sinner a softball and timely mental strength
Hurkacz had to play a smart game from start to finish. Sinner is the future of men’s tennis for a reason - it would be foolhardy to try and outhit him on either wing.
In the first set, Hurkacz played a steady, deep groundstroke game, giving the Italian little pace to work with. He also made 89% of his returns to continuously ask the question (Sinner made 76%). Though Sinner possesses a fast serve, his placement is still lacking compared to some of the top pros and Hurkacz took full advantage.
Sinner almost had all the answers. When a rally went five or more shots, i.e. the outcome of the point was (mostly) not affected by the serve, Sinner won 22 points to Hurkacz’s 19. Sinner was still using his groundstrokes effectively against Hurkacz’s slow balls and consequently, served for the set at 6-5.
Like the Tsitsipas match, however, Hurkacz won the battle of the minds. After Sinner hit coughed up three unforced errors for a 0-40 deficit, Hurkacz stubbornly survived a 14-shot rally to take it to a tiebreak.
There, when it mattered most, Hurkacz hit his first two clean groundstroke winners of the match to take the tiebreak 7-4.
Set 2 Hurkacz 6-4: Hurkacz adjusts to a dip from Sinner and overcomes nerves
Hurkacz’ has the ability to adapt.
In the second set, Sinner’s level started to wane as his legs began to fail him. His serve lost its zip and his average groundstroke speed dipped. In the second set, he won 30% of his points won in four or less shots. Contrastingly, in the first set, Hurkacz won 57% of his points won in this rally length.
Hurkacz recognised this and adjusted accordingly. He followed his shots into the net, winning eight of nine net points, and quadrupled his groundstroke winner count from the first set. He slowed down his first serve speed from 120mph in the first set to 111mph to make a higher percentage of first serves, making his first twelve in a row, recognising that the response from Sinner would likely be a weak one. He won a healthy 70% of his first serve points.
Hurkacz cruised to 4-0 and break-point. Sinner barely survived that game.
That’s when the nerves kicked in for Hubi.
His backhand started to falter and the second serves started to creep in - before you could say Dziękuję bardzo, it was 4-3 30-30. Hurkacz played a fairly safe approach and Sinner’s backhand clips the tape.
Phew.
From there, Hurkacz made enough first serves to collapse over the line. On the last point, Hurkacz won his one and only second serve point of the second set in a dogged 19 shot rally.
Hubert Hurkacz in Miami: Tournament Analysis
Though nobody saw Hurkacz’s victory coming this week, he absolutely deserved to finish in Pole position.
Hurkacz’s serve was one of the keys to his victory and acted as a steady foundation to the rest of his game throughout his tournament run. Often eclipsing 130mph, Hurkacz used his booming first serve to ease the pressure and allow him to hit freely from the baseline.
Hurkacz’s groundstrokes were incredibly consistent and both wings fared him well, with both wings peaking in different matches. Against Rublev, his forehand was on fire. Against Tsitsipas, his backhand was on fire. Though he was fairly passive in his final match, the depth he found consistently on either wing won him the title and his return was ever-reliable. The only thing he might want to work on is making his backhand less vulnerable in the nervier moments.
Hurkacz was impressively versatile in every match he played. He used strong approach shots and a sufficient net game to deal the mortal blow against a tiring Sinner and his backhand down the line gave him the option to surprise his opponent, particularly in the crucial break of Tsitsipas’s serve in their deciding set.
Finally, Hurkacz showed he had the mental muscles to beat anyone. He won games he didn’t have any right winning, went forehand-to-forehand against the game’s best and overcame a wobble in his final match.
After watching Hurkacz these last couple of weeks, the only thing I find surprising is that this didn’t happen sooner.
Hurkacz has always had bags of latent potential. He’s had decent runs of form in the past, beating Borna Coric, Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman at the 2020 ATP Cup. He’s played plenty of close matches against quality players but only just lost out.
The margins will continue to be incredibly fine against the best players in the world, so don’t expect Hurkacz to be winning every tournament he enters. He is definitely playing well enough to be in with a fighting chance at any tournament he plays at, however, and, after the last couple of weeks, he’s announced himself as a truly dangerous competitor.
Whichever player you may be a fan of, you can’t not find the guy endearing AF. Well done Hubi. Long may your love affair with Florida continue!
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He also beat world #123 Denis Kudla. Decent player but nothing on the accolades of the other five players - sorry Denis!
Delray Beach is also in Florida. Hurkacz trained here during the pandemic and has cited this as one of the reasons for his level of tennis in the state. Hurkacz is 10-0 in Florida in 2021.
According to Tennis Head magazine, the top 100 hold serve from 40-0 up 99% of the time. Tsitsipas went up 40-0 in five of his service games and was broken twice. If we took a count of the next 195 times Tsitsipas went 40-0 up, he would have to hold every time to get back on track.