Cameron Norrie: Improved Player Analysis
Cam Norrie has the third most wins in 2021. I've conducted a case study to analyse the improvements Cam has made to his game.
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Stefanos Tsitsipas sits atop the summit of ATP match wins in 2021 with a stunning 33 wins.
Andrey Rublev ain’t far behind with 29.
With the old boys, Djokovic and Nadal, having played only five tournaments apiece, it’s not too surprising to see these Next Gen-ers leading the charge.
In third place, however…
Out of nowhere, the world #45 and British #2, Cam Norrie, has won 23 matches this year, already eclipsing his previous season best of 21 match wins in 2019.
Why is Cam winning so many matches all of a sudden? What improvements has he made to his game?
I’m here to talk you through what the hell’s going on!
Cam Norrie’s playing style
Firstly, in case you haven’t seen much of Cam, here’s a short introduction to his game.
Cam potentially possesses the two most dissimilar groundstroke wings in the men’s game.
Below is a graph of topspin rates from the Miami Masters in 2021. Norrie is nestled away in the bottom righthand corner - his forehand is one of the spinniest on tour, at around 52rps (Rafa is around 55rps), whilst his two-handed backhand is one of the flattest, at around 20rps (literally the flattest on the graph).
Cam is left-handed.
This gives him a few tactical advantages against right-handed players - he has the ability to serve away from his opponent’s backhand and he is better equipped to attack his opponent’s backhand with his forehand during a rally.
“I am backing myself physically against the best in the world and when I am playing physical tennis and making the other guy suffer that’s when I am having success.”
A leftie with two disparate groundstrokes and a penchant for long, physical battles? It’s no wonder Norrie is renowned for being one of the trickiest players on tour.
Cam Norrie’s results
Secondly, before I dive into the improvements themselves, just how much have Norrie’s results tangibly improved?
Matches won: pre-2021, Norrie was winning 45.9% of his matches. In 2021, this is at a far more confident 67.6%.
Slam wins: Having never previously made the third round of a Slam a year ago, Norrie reached the third rounds of the last Australian and US Opens. What was particularly noteworthy - his win against Diego Schwartzman from two sets down at the US Open was probably the first big win of the new and improved Cam.
Clay-court potential realised: Even more significantly than his overall match win percentage, pre-2021, Norrie had won 43.5% of his clay-court matches. In 2021, this has sky-rocketed to 75.0%.
He finished runner-up in Lyon last Sunday, his second clay-court final of the season - along the way, he scored his first top-5 win against Dominic Thiem and handed Karen Khachanov the most one sided loss of his career.
Potentially top-20: Though he is #45 in the world, COVID has really scuppered the ATP’s rankings. Solely taking into account rankings points accumulated in 2021, Norrie is actually the 14th best player in the world.
Convinced? Splendid, let’s move on.
Cam Norrie’s Improvements
Here’s what the hell’s going on, specifically on clay1, which is quickly becoming his favourite surface.
These are the stats for Norrie’s performance on clay, before and during 2021.
Using a match-up Norrie had against the same player pre-2021 and during 2021, I’m going to talk you through why there’s so much green in front of you.
Case study: Cam Norrie v Roberto Carballes Baena
Cam Norrie has played Roberto Carballes Baena twice on clay2:
He lost to Carballes Baena in Estoril in 2018, 7-5 2-6 6-7 (1).
He won against Carballes Baena in Rome in 2021, 6-4 6-4.
What’s changed? It’s not his groundstrokes specifically.
In Estoril 2018, Norrie’s winners or forced errors to unforced errors:
Forehand = +6
Backhand = -2
In Rome 2021, Norrie’s winners or forced errors to unforced errors:
Forehand = +2
Backhand = -4
Norrie lost more rallies that went 9+ shots in both matches3. This rally length is almost completely uninfluenced by the serve or return.
It’s Cam Norrie’s first-strike tennis ability on serve and return that’s making the biggest difference.
Return of serve on break points
Though Norrie has only won 0.2% more return points on clay this season, he has increased his return games winning percentage by 2.3%.
One of the main differences that has allowed Norrie to achieve this is his return of serve, specifically when the pressure is on. His break points won percentage has increased by 2.7%, way more than his return points won, relatively speaking.
Norrie has found more success on return by going bigger more often.
Vs RCB in Estoril 2018, Norrie won 13.8% of his total return points in 0-4 shots.
Vs RCB in Rome 2021, Norrie won 20.0% of his total return points in 0-4 shots, a 6.2% increase.
This is further showcased by Norrie’s depth of return in this match up.
Vs RCB in Estoril 2018, Norrie missed the return or landed his return before the service line 36.7% of the time.
Vs RCB in Rome 2021, Norrie missed the return or landed his return before the service line 43.5% of the time.
Norrie is attacking the return more frequently, looking for more consistent depth and, rather than just trying to get the return in play, is looking to make his opponent uncomfortable on break points.
Though Norrie’s “go big or go home” attitude isn’t working all the time, as evidenced by a decrease in his first serve return points won in 2021, it’s winning him big points.
When it matters most, the new Cam Norrie has the power on return.
Serve +14
All that dark green you saw earlier? Those are Norrie’s service stats and, boy, have they improved.
His percentages of first and second serve points won have both increased by at least 5% from before 2021. Under pressure, he’s saving 5% more break points. He’s acing more and double faulting less.
It all adds up to him winning 11.8% more service games which is huge in tennis terms.
Once again, Norrie’s ability to keep the points short has been the catalyst to his serving success.
Vs RCB in Estoril 2018, Norrie won 19.8% of his total service points in 0-4 shots.
Vs RCB in Rome 2021, Norrie won 36.7% of his total return points in 0-4 shots, a 16.9% increase. HUGE!
Okay, Rome may have a faster surface but here’s the beauty of making a direct comparison between two players - RCB only managed a 3.6% increase in this department.
Not only has Norrie improved the serve itself5, he has been more aggressive on the following shot.
Vs RCB in Estoril 2018, when Norrie’s serve was returned, Norrie won the point on the following shot 9.5% of the time.
Vs RCB in Rome 2021, when Norrie’s serve was returned, Norrie won the point on the following shot 20.1% of the time, more than double the amount of serve +1 points.
By relying more on his lefty serve, which kicks viciously off the clay, and being more aggressive off of the following shot, Norrie is dominating his service points more than ever.
Other matches
In his run to the final in Estoril this year, Norrie’s snappy form on serve was on display.
In Estoril 2021, Norrie’s service points won in 0-4 shots:
Final vs Albert Ramos Vinolas: 35/110 = 31.8%
Semifinal vs Marin Cilic: 36/79 = 45.6%
Quarterfinal vs Cristian Garin: 32/92 = 34.8%
Norrie had played Ramos Vinolas once before in Barcelona 20196 - though the surface was faster, Norrie won only 30% of his service points in 0-4 shots, less than in Estoril. He was emphatic against Cilic and he did an amazing job of keeping his service points short against Garin, one of the game’s best clay-courters.
Cameron Norrie: Improved Player Analysis
I’m going to go out on a limb and say Cam Norrie is 2021’s most improved player on clay (not named Aslan Karatsev).
Where Norrie had previously been locked in a battle to the death against Roberto Carballes Baena in 2018, three years later, he dismissed him with all the routineness of a top-30 veteran.
Norrie is looking to increase pressure on his opponent’s serve. Though his big returns aren’t landing all the time, his execution on break points has certainly improved, his ability to take the result of the match into his own hands showcasing his belief.
More impressive, however, is his serve. Its kick is deadlier than it used to be and his intent on the following shot is cutthroat.
Matches are most often won by the player that’s won the most rallies in the 0-4 shot rally length and Norrie’s intent, belief and aggression on court are consistently winning him this mini-battle.
Though he’s yet to significantly improve his hard-court game, the kick and swing of his lefty serve being slightly less effective on that surface, his improvements to the return of serve have made him a formidable contender on any surface. As his return game grows, so too will his chances on other surfaces.
Well done on all the improvements you’ve made so far Cam! You’re ascension through the rankings was never in doubt.
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Though Norrie’s game has wholly improved, his results on clay have dramatically improved - as they should have as his game is tailor-made for clay (spinny forehand, lefty trickiness, can run for days)! The tweaks to his game are therefore better analysed within the context of a clay court.
This is one of the few times Norrie has played somebody on clay multiple times in his career. Roberto Carballes Baena is also a good player to use to display the improvements in Norrie’s game as his own game has remained near the same level, his ranking having stagnated near the lower end of the top 100 for the entirety of these three years.
In Estoril 2018, Norrie won 31 points that went 9 shots or more to RCB’s 35 rallies, whilst in Rome 2021, Norrie won 13 to RCB’s 16.
A serve +1 is a point finished in three shots;
The first shot is the player’s serve.
The second shot is the opponent’s return.
The third shot is the server’s second shot, hence the +1 rather than +2 - this is the last shot to land in the court.
2.0% increase in aces, 0.8% decrease in double faults shows the slight improvement in serve in isolation.
Norrie lost 6-2 6-2 in Barcelona 2019 and lost in a match tiebreak in Estoril 2021. It should also be noted Norrie’s kicking lefty serve generally has less effect against Ramos Vinolas as he is a fellow lefty.
Definitely improved. Can't see him cracking top 20 though 😜