Aslan Karatsev: An analysis of his sudden success
Aslan Karatsev is 2021's breakout star. What aspects of his game have been improved to contribute to his surprising success?
Aslan Karatsev. Tennis fans are probably sick of hearing his name by now but, in case you’ve been living with Patrick Star, I’ll give you a short introduction.
On his Grand Slam debut at this year’s Australian Open, Karatsev made a run to the semifinals. This is the deepest anyone’s gone on Grand Slam debut in the Open Era, beating three (practically) top-20 players, Diego Schwartzman (#9), Felix Auger-Aliassime (#18, from two sets to love down) and Grigor Dimitrov (#21).
Karatsev capitalised on this run with his first two ATP titles, one in Doha in the doubles draw and one in Dubai in the singles draw earlier this month.
At 27 years old, those that watch Karatsev play are probably wondering what the hell he’s been doing for 10 years. He mercilessly destroys every groundstroke he gets his racket on, creating effortless power from the back of the court, and looks as though he could defeat practically any opponent put in front of him. It took the king of Australia to stop the Muscovite’s massacre.
What changed? What is Aslan Karatsev doing to finally realise his true potential? And no, eating clay isn’t the secret.
In this article, I compare what Karatsev was doing on-court before his success with what he was doing during his peak performances in Australia.
When did Karatsev first find success?
First, some background.
Karatsev has been playing consistent professional tennis since the age of 17. He won three of Futures events in 2013, announcing himself as a contender on the Challenger tour. He won his first Challenger title in 2015 in Kazan, giving him access to a few ATP-level events, with limited success. He settled around this standard of play, winning most Futures events he needed to play and having fairly consistent success at the Challenger level.
Like any Cinderella story worth its salt, however, life was tough for Karatsev for a while.
At the tail-end of 2019, Karatsev went on an 11 match losing streak at the ATP and Challenger level. On the verge of quitting1, Karatsev gritted his teeth to reach the Bangkok Challenger final in January 2020. Some more middling results followed before the tennis world went into lockdown.
When Karatsev returned, he was a new man.
He made three consecutive Challenger finals, two in Prague and one in Ostrava, winning two and losing to the Stanimal2 on the comeback. He was able to enter various ATP events, losing to decent players Sebastian Korda, Karen Khachanov, Andreas Seppi and Alex De Minaur before making his inspired run at the Australian Open.
All caught up? Wondering what Karatsev was up to during lockdown? Let’s take a look at what changed in the Russian’s game.
Statistics for Karatsev’s game pre-lockdown and post-lockdown
I’ve taken statistics for three of Karatsev’s matches from right before the tennis world went into lockdown and scrutinised these results against three of Karatsev’s most impressive wins during his Australian Open run.
One match from before lockdown is Karatsev’s semifinal win against Gian Marco Moroni (#257) in his run to the Bangkok Challenger final, a win that shows Karatsev at his best before the pandemic struck.
The other two matches are losses following this run, one to Dmitry Popko (#183) in a second Bangkok Challenger event and the other to Saketh Myeni (#427) in the Bengaluru Challenger. Both matches magnify the vulnerabilities in Karatsev’s pre-lockdown game, particularly in his loss to the world #427.
His most impressive Australian Open wins were against the aforementioned players Diego Schwartzman, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Grigor Dimitrov. These matches show Karatsev at his blistering peak.
Karatsev’s best before March 2020
In one of his most one-sided wins pre-March, Karatsev dominated Gian Marco Moroni 6-2 6-2 to reach his first Challenger final in almost four years.
To determine how Karatsev played in this match, I’ve made a list of the points Karatsev won or lost on his own racket.
Karatsev’s worst before March 2020
Conversely, Karatsev fell to Dmitry Popko in three sets in Bangkok 4-6 6-0 6-4, and tamely lost to Saketh Myeni in Bengaluru 6-3 6-3.
Here’s the same set of statistics for these two losses.
Karatsev’s best during his 2021 Australian Open run
In Australia, Karatsev pummelled Diego Schwartzman 6-3 6-3 6-3, fought a spirited comeback against Felix Auger-Aliassime 3-6 1-6 6-3 6-3 6-4 and defeated an in-form Grigor Dimitrov 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2.
Once again, here are the statistics for these three matches.
Comparing Karatsev’s game pre-lockdown and post-lockdown
Groundstrokes
Before lockdown, Karatsev still possessed firepower on both the forehand and backhand wings, though both were less reliable.
The forehand has always been the more reliable of the two weapons. He was still able to hit more forehand winners and force more errors than unforced errors in even his worst matches, and against Moroni, it was his primary weapon.
Notice against Moroni, however, it is also the shot that offered up the most unforced errors. In Australia, Karatsev kept his winner count high but tightened up his unforced error count significantly.
The backhand let him down badly in his two losses. He finished the point with a backhand winner or forced an error with the backhand in 5.6% of points but finished the point with a backhand unforced error 14.4% of the time, his biggest weakness in these matches. Though it was impressive against Moroni, suggesting its potential, Karatsev’s backhand used to be prone to a loss of control.
In Australia, both percentages on the backhand were closer to his match against Moroni, though he still hit more unforced errors than he forced errors or hit winners.
This is a little bit misleading, however. If Karatsev’s backhand doesn’t finish the point outright, often he will finish the point off on the following shot with a forehand. He can direct it inside out and cross-court fluidly - it’s an effective pattern of play and is one he has utilised in both his pre-pandemic-form and his post-pandemic-God-form. This is evident in his domination of rallies that lasted 5-8 shots.
Karatsev v Moroni: 13 to 5
Karatsev v Myneni and Popko: 21 to 20
Karatsev v Dimitrov, Schwartzman and Auger-Aliassime: 74 to 58
Even in his losses, he came out on top in this rally length. An effective backhand’s always been a shot he’s possessed - though he still struggles somewhat with its consistency, maintaining its quality against quality opponents suggests it is slightly more effective than it used to be.
Serve
The serve is arguably the most important change for Karatsev.
Though it might not seem obvious watching his matches, Karatsev’s serve has improved since the beginning of 2020.
In his two losses, the point ended in a Karatsev double fault 3.6% of the time - under pressure, Karatsev’s serve could crack. The point was won by Karatsev due to his serve 11.6% of the time, not as successful as his forehand percentage of 12%.
Against Moroni, he won only 7.2% of points due to his serve and double-faulted only once. He played safe serves and dominated proceedings using his forehand more than his serve and backhand combined.
Fast-forward to Australia, against three astute returners, and Karatsev is finishing the point using his serve 14.7% of the time, more so than his forehand. His double fault rate is a little higher at 2.1% than in his match against Moroni, but the reward far outweighs the risk for him going for his serves against ATP-level opponents.
Return
To ensure the return has made an impact, I’ve taken a look at the points Karatsev won on return in 0-4 shots (excluding double faults from the opponent).
Karatsev v Moroni: 10 of 45 return points = 22%.
Karatsev v Myneni and Popko: 23 of 117 return points = 19.7%.
Karatsev v Dimitrov, Schwartzman and Auger-Aliassime: 53 of 212 return points = 25%.
Once again, even in a match where he completely dominated his opponent, Karatsev’s return of serve was worse than in his Australian Open matches. He won his return points in 0-4 shots on a quarter of his opponent’s serves.
Statistics help but you don’t need them for evidence of this one. Karatsev hit some outrageous returns in Australia, often creating angles unmatched by any other player (see below!).
Why is Aslan Karatsev suddenly so successful?
Karatsev has always had an explosive game from the baseline. His forehand has frequently been the catalyst behind his wins and his indecipherable backhand is often used to get him into an offensive position in the rally.
In Australia, against better quality opponents, his forehand more than did the damage. His backhand is still a little loose but it is stronger than it was at the beginning of 2020.
It is also worth noting that in all of these matches, Karatsev instigated play. His strength allows him to win and lose points and matches on his racket, even against some of the best players in the world.
Karatsev’s brilliant groundstrokes have allowed him to work on making his return game short and snappy. It showed in Australia as he returned many serves with interest.
Finally, Karatsev has turned his serve into a real weapon. This was his strongest weapon in Australia and is arguably the main reason for his meteoric rise to world #27.
Granted, this is a fairly limited analysis of Karatsev’s rise3. From these numbers, however, using a comfortable win from before lockdown to keep things in perspective, it’s pretty safe to say Karatsev has tightened up his game, finding particular success with the serve.
Whether you are applauding Auger-Aliassime, spurring on Schwartzman, supporting Sinner, rooting for Rublev, exhilarated by Evans, or just fancy Dimitrov, you’d better get used to Aslan Karatsev taking no prisoners. Judging by this analysis, there's just too much going his way for him to be leaving the tour any time soon.
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Probably on the verge of quitting, unconfirmed (added for dramatic effect).
Stan Wawrinka, I couldn’t help myself with Stanimal.
I’d love to do a deeper analysis of Karatsev’s pre-lockdown form but Challenger match analyses are very time consuming as all the data has to be collected manually. I’ll consider delving into more intricate statistics in the future.