0-2 down: The chance of making a comeback at the Grand Slams
Dropping the first two sets in a tennis match would be curtains for most tennis players. We take a look at the elite players that thrive when they are seemingly down and out.
In the first part of the “0-2 down” series, we determined the GOATs of the 0-2 comeback - who had the highest winning percentage from 0-2 down in the Open Era and which of the active players on tour was best from 0-2 down. Have a read here if you missed it.
In this second part of the series, we delve deeper into the Grand Slam history of being 0-2 down.
If any given player on tour drops the opening two sets to their opponent at a major tournament, how likely are they to make the comeback? At which of the Slams does the comeback occur the most? Going one step further than this, the crown jewel of being 0-2 down - how often has a player gone 0-2 down at a Grand Slam, completed the comeback and then gone on to win the tournament?
We look to answer all of these questions and more by trawling through the dusty, old records of the Open Era.
How often does a 0-2 comeback occur at the Grand Slams?
Take any given player at any of the Grand Slams. They drop the first two sets to their opponent - without knowing anything else about them, what is the approximate chance of them completing the comeback?
It’s not as rare as you might think. In the Open Era, when a player has dropped their first two sets in a match, they have gone on to win the match 5.90% of the time. That’s 935 of 15848 matches. That’s a comeback in approximately 1 in every 17 matches for any given player on the tour. It doesn’t happen often, but it could hardly be considered an anomaly1.
At which of the Grand Slams does the 0-2 comeback occur the most?
Dissecting these numbers further, we can determine the winning percentage from 0-2 down at each of the individual Grand Slams.
A 0-2 comeback is historically most likely to occur at the Australian Open. When the first two sets were dropped, 6.56% of matches resulted in a comeback, approximately 1 in every 15 matches.
This could be a result of the Australian Open being so early in the tennis calendar. Players can put everything into their comeback using energy that would otherwise be expended nearer the end of the year.
Following this line of thinking, you’d expect the likelihood of a 0-2 comeback to diminish as the year goes on. It is Wimbledon however, sitting in the middle of the tennis calendar, that is the Slam with the least 0-2 comebacks, occurring 1 in every 18 (and a half) matches from 0-2 down in SW19. Wimbledon is potentially an exception to the rule as quick grass-courts make it easier for the forerunner to hold the momentum.
For the rest of the Slams, this theory holds true; the most occur at the Australian Open in January, followed by the French Open in May, followed closely behind by the US Open in September.
How often has a Grand Slam victor made a 0-2 comeback in their title run?
It will be the last thing on any player’s mind when they go 0-2 down but it’s an interesting point of conversation for us spectators. From 0-2 down at a Grand Slam, how likely is any given player to not only complete the 0-2 comeback, but to then go on to win the tournament?
There have been 23 occasions where a player has dropped their opening two sets in a match, won that match, and then gone on to win the tournament or won the tournament as a result of the win i.e. a win in the final. Since there have been 15848 occasions where a player has won the opening two sets in the Open Era, this could be framed as a 23/15848 chance of making the comeback of comebacks, approximately 1 in every 689 matches from 0-2 down.
The problem with this answer is that not every player in this situation really could go on to win the tournament; if any old player goes 0-2 down in a Slam, they don’t then have a 0.145% (23/15848) chance of winning the tournament. It depends on who has dropped the first two sets.
A more telling statistic would be to take the number of times a Slam champion has had to recover from 0-2 down during their title run and frame it within the context of the total amount of Grand Slams won in the Open Era.
• 23 title runs that included a 0-2 comeback.
• 211 Grand Slam events held in the Open Era.
• The percentage chance any given champion had to make a 0-2 down comeback during their title run = 23 out of 211 Slams = 11% of the time.
In other words, if your favourite player happens to be ranked outside the top 100 and they go down two sets to love at Wimbledon, don’t hold out hope that their match is going to be the 1 in 689 where they go on to win the tournament. If your favourite player happens to be ranked in, say, the top 10 and they go 0-2 down, just remember that 11% of Grand Slam champions faced the same adversity on their way to the title.
Who has achieved this feat?
Expanding on the rankings of players that have pulled off this feat, Michael Chang is the only player ranked outside the top 10 to have successfully won a Slam after going 0-2 down during the tournament. He was ranked number 19 and beat Ivan Lendl on his way to the French Open in 1989. Here is his victory among the full list of these elite players.
This list includes two appearances from six players; Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Stefan Edberg, Boris Becker, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Therefore, only 17 different players have achieved this feat, reinforcing just how difficult it is to achieve this.
All of these players rank amongst the greatest players of all time. In the previous article, we discussed Djokovic’s mediocre record from 0-2 down. He may not be the best at pulling off the comeback but he ranks amongst the very best at capitalising on a comeback.
The 0-2 comeback at the Grand Slams
So, what have we learnt?
Approximately 1 in every 17 matches where a player drops the first two sets in a Grand Slam results in a five-set comeback victory.
There is a higher percentage chance of players freshly rested pulling off a 0-2 comeback at the Australian Open than on the quick grass-courts of Wimbledon.
11% of Grand Slam champions have had to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on their way to the title.
Six players have twice won a Grand Slam after going 0-2 down at one point in the tournament, including Novak Djokovic. Though he has only comeback from 0-2 down four times in his career, two of those victories have led him to a Grand Slam victory.
So, hopefully, you learnt something. What’s your favourite memory of a 0-2 comeback? Let me know in the comments below.
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A couple of matches from last year’s US Open can be used to put this number into context. Dominic Thiem dropped his opening two sets against Alexander Zverev in the final, as did Andy Murray against Yoshihito Nishioka in the first round. Thiem’s lowest odds of making the comeback dipped as low as 12.8%, whilst Murray’s odds went as low as 7.7%.
For Thiem, at his very worst, bookmakers still backed Thiem to make the comeback twice as much as any given player on the tour.
For Murray, the GOAT of active players at the 0-2 comeback, bookmakers only backed him to make the comeback 1.3 times more than any given player. These would have been decent odds to take on given Murray had a 25% win rate from 0-2 down prior to this match. In fairness to the bookmakers, Murray’s health and endurance were in question.
These odds are from https://www.betfair.com/sport/.
Hi where can I find the database with all the comeback 0-2 for each player in ATP?